NCJ Number
194325
Journal
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism Volume: 25 Issue: 2 Dated: March/April 2002 Pages: 101-126
Date Published
April 2002
Length
26 pages
Annotation
This subsequent article presents a subset of observable indicators for each variable identified within the integrated framework for the analysis of risk for terrorism of radical groups.
Abstract
An introductory article presented an integrated framework for the analysis of risk for terrorism for radical groups. Four conceptual categories were identified: (1) historical, cultural, and contextual features; (2) key actors affecting the group; (3) the group or organization; and (4) the immediate situation. In addition, 32 variables were identified within the 4 categories to establish the overall integrated framework from which a subset of observable indicators was identified for each of the 32 variables. This sequential article presents these identified observable indicators of risk for terrorism. The observable indicators under the historical, cultural, and contextual features include: historically rooted culture of violence, current communal conflict, and political economic, and social instability. Indicators under the category key actors affecting the group include: opponents, constituents, supporters, and competitors. The group or organization category on characteristics, processes, and structures include: group ideology and goals, group experiences with violence, leadership personality characteristics, leadership style and organizational decision making, organizational processes, groupthink and polarization, group psychological progression toward terrorism, type of support, and indicators of movement toward terrorism. The final category on the immediate situation include: triggering events associated with increased risk for terrorism. This framework was also applied to the five principle types of radical groups: nationalist-separatists, social revolutionaries, religious fundamentalists, nontraditional religious extremists, and right-wing groups. Conclusions are presented for each of the four conceptual categories and include: (1) historical, cultural and contextual features are important in the prediction of terrorism for all but new religion groups; (2) group characteristics, processes, and structures are rated as highly important to the prediction of terrorism across all five groups; (3) ratings for new religions differ most consistently from those of other group types; and (4) there is a lack of confidence in the ratings for new religions reflecting the relatively small number of these groups and the recency of their entry into terrorism. Notes