NCJ Number
207435
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 44 Issue: 5 Dated: September 2004 Pages: 641-658
Editor(s)
Geoffrey Pearson
Date Published
September 2004
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This paper presents the development of an event-based mapping procedure to produce prospective hot-spot maps that predict and map future crime locations.
Abstract
Existing methods of predicting and mapping the future locations of crime are intrinsically retrospective. This paper discusses a method based upon inferences about area patterns yielded by individual events, summed and weighted as their predictive power diminishes. The crime event is central and feeds into an ever-changing predictive map. The method, hot-spot designation, is distinctive in being event driven. The method uses each crime event as a leading indicator, modifying areas predictions on the basis of individual risk. Technical issues are discussed in generating prospective hot spots, as well as looking at how their efficiency may be measured and preliminary results comparing the predictive accuracy of prospective and retrospective hot spots. Even though the prospective method does not incorporate some known patterns of repetition, it outperforms a traditional, more sophisticated method. Utilization of the prospective approach is greatest in the two days following a crime event. The hot-spotting technique offers advantages in terms of hot-spot efficiency. It assesses risk at the direct neighborhood level which may help to realize the goal of neighborhood-level crime prevention, identifies those most at risk and the need to minimize the geography that requires special attention, and is useful in the shift-by-shift deployment of police personnel. References