NCJ Number
12322
Date Published
1973
Length
20 pages
Annotation
PROPOSED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING EFFECTS OF POSSIBLE POLICY CHANGES IN PRISON/PAROLE SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE PRISON AND PAROLE POPULATIONS.
Abstract
MUCH CONTROVERSY SURROUNDS THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF POLICY CHANGES WITHIN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, E.G., INCREASED USE OF PAROLE. THIS PAPER PRESENTS A SIMULATION MODEL FOR CALCULATING CERTAIN OF THOSE EFFECTS, IN WHICH THE PRISON/PAROLE SYSTEM IS VIEWED AS A FEEDBACK PROCESS FOR CRIMINAL OFFENDERS. OFFENDERS MAY BE LOCATED AT THREE POSSIBLE STAGES - IMPRISONED, PAROLED, OR DISCHARGED. TRANSITION FROM STAGE TO STAGE IS ASSUMED TO BE IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DISCRETE TIME AND PROBABILITY PROCESS. PROJECTED PRISON AND PAROLE POPULATIONS FOR SAMPLE DATA AND MODEL APPLICATIONS ARE DISCUSSED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)