NCJ Number
80461
Date Published
1978
Length
70 pages
Annotation
The dissertation attempts to establish the usefulness of the variables of disciplinary offenses during incarceration and demographic factors as predictors of parole success or failure.
Abstract
Data for the investigation derive from records of men from the Youth Correction Institution at Bordentown, N.J. One hundred men discharged between April and October 1975 from the Bordentown institution are compared to a group of 100 inmates sequentially recommitted by the superior courts of New Jersey between January and December 1975. Ten demographic variables and four levels of disciplinary offenses are classified for each subject using computerized statistical analysis. Findings indicate significant differences between the two groups both for disciplinary offenses and for demographic variables. Only three demographic factors are high individual predictors of success and failure: age at prior commitment, months in the institution, and disciplinary offenses in the average level disciplinary offense group. In general, failure subjects earn a higher number of serious offenses than do success subjects. Recidivists are significantly younger at first arrest and have more prior convictions than members of the success group. Longer sentences without time off for good behavior also indicate poor success prospects. Age and defined disciplinary offenses are recommended as valid individual discriminators of success and failure. Inclusion of other factors such as program activities in the institut ion could improve the prediction accuracy of the factors mentioned. Further research on prediction models is recommended. Tables and a bibliography are supplied.