PREDICTION OF DANGEROUS BEHAVIOR

• NCJ Number: 34029
• Journal: Criminal Justice and Behavior Volume: 3 Issue: 1 Dated: (MARCH 1976) Pages: 3-22
• Author(s): E I MEGARGEE
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 20 pages
• Corporate Author: American Assoc of Correctional Psychologists
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE CONSEQUENCES OF ERRORS IN VIOLENCE PREDICTION ARE EXAMINED AND THE ETHICAL PROBLEMS AND SOCIAL POLICY IMPLICATIONS ARE DISCUSSED.

Abstract

ERROR IS INEVITABLE WHENEVER PSYCHOLOGISTS ATTEMPT TO PREDICT FUTURE BEHAVIOR. THIS PAPER EXAMINES THE STEPS INVOLVED AND THE FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE PREDICTION OF BEHAVIOR IN GENERAL AND DANGEROUS BEHAVIOR IN PARTICULAR. ERRORS CAN OCCUR IN IDENTIFYING THE RELEVANT PERSONALITY AND SITUATIONAL VARIABLES TO SAMPLE, ASSESSING THESE VARIABLES, AND DETERMINING THEIR INTERACTION. THE EFFECTS OF THESE ERRORS ARE MULTIPLIED BY THE FACT THAT VIOLENCE IS A LOW BASE-RATE PHENOMENON. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)