NCJ Number
155427
Journal
Criminology Australia Volume: 6 Issue: 3 Dated: (February 1995) Pages: 12-14
Date Published
1995
Length
3 pages
Annotation
The current method used by the New South Wales, Australia, Department of Corrective Services for short-term forecasting of inmate numbers is described and applied to three groups: sentenced inmates, those detained before and during trial, and fine defaulters.
Abstract
The number of sentenced inmates was predicted from an estimated reception rate and an estimated distribution of time served, using computer software that starts with all sentenced inmates in custody on a given date and their time left to serve. Every 4 weeks it iteratively adds new receptions with their time to serve. The future number of remandees and trials is predicted based on the numbers for the previous 3 years taken at 4-weekly interviews. The number of inmates in custody for fine default alone was small and was taken as an appropriate constant. In November 1992, 6,400 inmates were predicted for the end of June 1993. The actual number was 6,386. In September 1993, 6,490 were predicted for the end of June 1994. The actual number was 6,409. Although the method is not fully developed, it gives a reasonable prediction 1 year ahead if everything stays as it is now. Figures and 1 reference