NCJ Number
36886
Date Published
1976
Length
90 pages
Annotation
LAST IN A FOUR-PART SERIES OF ANALYTICAL MONOGRAPHS ON FEDERAL CRIMINAL SENTENCING IN THE UNITED STATES.
Abstract
PREVIOUS MONOGRAPHS EXPLORED PATTERNS THAT CHARACTERIZE SENTENCES IMPOSED FOR A VARIETY OF MAJOR OFFENSES AT THE NATIONAL, CIRCUIT, AND DISTRICT LEVELS. IN THOSE STUDIES, MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS YIELDED A NUMBER OF 'MODEL' EQUATIONS SUMMARIZING THE RELATION OF A VARIETY OF OFFENSE, OFFENDER, PROCESS, AND COURT-RELATED VARIABLES SENTENCE OUTCOME. IN THIS MONOGRAPH, THOSE EQUATIONS ARE APPLIED TO VARIOUS SUBSETS OF CASES IN AN EFFORT TO TEST THE COMPARABILITY OF SENTENCING 'POLICY' ACROSS JURISDICTION AND OVER TIME FOR A VARIETY OF OFFENSES. THE REGRESSION EQUATION DERIVED FROM ANAYSIS OF THE AGGREGATE DATA AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, FOR EXAMPLE, IS APPLIED TO INDIVIDUAL CASES SENTENCED WITHIN EACH OF THE TEN MAJOR FEDERAL CIRCUITS AND SIX FOCAL DISTRICTS IN AN EFFORT TO SEE HOW ACCURATELY WE MIGHT PREDICT SENTENCES ACROSS THE INDIVIDUAL FEDERAL JURISDICTIONS ON THE BASIS OF THE SINGLE FORMULA WHICH OPTIMALLY SUMMARIZES SENTENCING AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL. IN SIMILAR FASHION, NATIONAL-LEVEL EQUATIONS FOR SPECIFIC OFFENSE GROUPS ARE ALSO APPLIED TO CASES DISPOSED OF AT CIRCUIT AND DISTRICT LEVELS. FINALLY, 1971 SENTENCES ARE PREDICTED ON THE BASIS OF PATTERNS WHICH BEST DESCRIBED SENTENCING PRACTICES IN 1964, IN AN EFFORT TO ASSESS THE CONSISTENCY OF SENTENCING POLICY OVER TIME. ON THE WHOLE, THE CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN ACTUAL AND PREDICTED SENTENCES WAS FOUND TO BE ENCOURAGING, LEADING TO THE BELIEF THAT EQUITABLE SENTENCING BY WAY OF A CONCRETE SENTENCING POLICY -- I.E., A POLICY THAT ASSIGNS SPECIFIC WEIGHTS TO VARIOUS OFFENDER, OFFENSE, AND PROCESS RELATED FACTORS -- IS AT LEAST TECHNOLOGICALLY FEASIBLE. BRIEF EXPLANATIONS OF THE 23 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES USED IN THE ORIGINAL ANALYSES ARE APPENDED. FOR THE OTHER MONOGRAPHS IN THE SERIES, SEE NCJ-36883-85. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED) (SNI ABSTRACT)