NCJ Number
54679
Journal
Sociology and Social Research Volume: 52 Issue: 4 Dated: (JULY 1968) Pages: 377-391
Date Published
1968
Length
15 pages
Annotation
THE PERCEPTIONS OF 415 CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROFESSIONALS REGARDING 20 PAROLE PREDICTION ITEMS ARE COMPARED IN AN EXPLORATION OF CONGRUENCE AMONG POLICE PREDICTION THEORY, RESEARCH, AND PERCEPTIONS.
Abstract
SURVEY RESPONDENTS INCLUDED POLICE, PROSECUTING ATTORNEYS, JUDGES, CORRECTIONAL STAFF, PAROLE BOARD MEMBERS, PROBATION AND POLICE OFFICERS, AND MEMBERS OF A CITIZENS' COUNCIL. FOR EACH ITEM, RESPONDENTS INDICATED THEIR PERCEPTIONS OF THE DIRECTION (SUCCESS OR FAILURE) AND DEGREE OF PREDICTIVE POWER. THEIR RESPONSES WERE ANALYZED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL FOUNDATIONS OF EACH ITEM. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME LAG IN THE FORMAL USE OF PAROLE PREDICTION INSTRUMENTS, THERE APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLE CONGRUENCE AMONG THEORY, RESEARCH, AND PERCEPTION FOR CERTAIN PREDICTION ITEMS, PARTICULARLY THOSE DERIVED FROM DIFFERENTIAL ASSOCIATION THEORY. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE MANY INSTANCES OF MISTAKEN PERCEPTIONS, MORE ITEMS WERE CORRECTLY PERCEIVED THAN WERE INCORRECTLY PERCEIVED. PERCEPTUAL ERRORS GENERALLY WERE A MATTER OF DEGREE RATHER THAN DIRECTION. IN ONLY TWO INSTANCES (ITEMS HAVING TO DO WITH SEX OFFENDERS) DID RESPONDENTS PERCEIVE ITEMS TO PREDICT THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY ARE INTENDED TO PREDICT. PERCEPTUAL ACCURACY APPEARS TO VARY DIRECTLY WITH AND CONTACT WITH JUDGES AND PAROLE OFFICERS. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL EXAGGERATE THE PREDICTIVE POWERS OF THE ITEMS TESTED. THE GREATEST CONFLICT CENTERS ON ITEMS DRAWN FROM A LEGALISTIC TRADITION AND INVOLVING THE CRIMES OF HOMICIDE AND RAPE. IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS FOR PAROLE PREDICTION AND FOR EDUCATION OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL ARE CONSIDERED. SUPPORTING DATA ARE INCLUDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--LKM)