NCJ Number
85289
Editor(s)
C M Friel
Date Published
1982
Length
205 pages
Annotation
Six papers on State prison population forecasting discuss policy and administrative issues, the use of automated information systems, and mathematical and simulation forecasting techniques with and without computers.
Abstract
An overview of policy concerns examines the benefits of forecasting, emphasizing that successful models must be developed in times of equilibrium rather than crisis. Forecasting guidelines instruct persons new to the field in setting up data categories, predicting admissions and time served, and testing validity. A paper tracing the development of computerized information systems describes the Offender-Based State Corrections Information System (OBSCIS), the State Corrections Management System (SCRMS), and the Jail Administrators Management System (JAMS-II). Three methods for population forecasting using a calculator are detailed for administrators who may not have costly equipment or advanced statistical skills. The report includes descriptions of Colorado's commitment cohort model for predicting future commitments by quarter and Florida's experiences with simulation modeling techniques; the latter also reports on a survey of forecasting methods used by 44 State corrections agencies. Appendixes contain a table summarizing the Illinois Department of Corrections' survey of forecasting techniques used by State and Federal correctional agencies and a computer program for calculating admission cohort matrixes. More than 70 references are included. For individual papers, see NCJ85290-85295.