NCJ Number
56358
Date Published
1977
Length
261 pages
Annotation
A TECHNIQUE FOR USING SYSTEM SIMULATION MODELING AND ATTITUDE SCALING TO FORMULATE AND EVALUATE POLICIES FOR CONTROLLING DRUG ABUSE AND RELATED CRIMINAL ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPED.
Abstract
DATA FROM THE BOSTON, MASS., AREA ARE USED TO IDENTIFY THE KEY PARAMETERS OF DRUG ABUSE AND RELATED CRIMINALITY. THESE PARAMETERS ARE INCORPORATED IN A COMPUTER SIMULATION MODEL, WHICH IS USED TO TEST THE MACROLEVEL EFFECTS (PROPAGATION OF ABUSE THROUGH THE POPULATION, PERSISTENCE OF A GIVEN LEVEL OF ABUSE OVER TIME) OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES. THE MODEL PROVES WORKABLE. THE RESULTS OF THE SIMULATION RUNS SUGGEST SEVERAL CONCLUSIONS ABOUT DRUG ABUSE IN URBAN POPULATION: (1) COINCIDENCES, SUCH AS THE RELEASE FROM DETENTION OF A LARGE NUMBER OF USERS AT A TIME WHEN FEW USERS ARE BEING DETAINED, ARE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN ABUSE EPIDEMICS; (2) CONCENTRATION--INDEPENDENT USERS--THOSE WHO ACTIVELY SEEK OUT NARCOTICS--ARE A CRITICAL TARGET FOR POLICYMAKERS; (3) THE MOST SUCCESSFUL POLICIES TEND TO BE MULTICOMPONENT AND ARREST ORIENTED; (4) IT TAKES AT LEAST 2 OR 3 YEARS FOR THE EFFECTS OF A POLICY TO BECOME EVIDENT; (5) ECONOMIC SUBSIDY OF USERS (IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER POLICY COMPONENTS) APPEARS TO BE A VIABLE POLICY ALTERNATIVE; AND (6) THERE MAY BE A MINIMUM LEVEL BELOW WHICH CRIMINALITY CANNOT BE REDUCED. A DECISIONMAKING PROCEDURE THAT COMBINES POLICY SIMULATIONS WITH A TECHNIQUE FOR SCALING THE ATTITUDES OF DECISIONMAKERS IS PRESENTED, AND THE ADVANTAGES OF ROUTINIZING THE POLICYMAKING PROCESS ARE POINTED OUT. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION INCLUDES COMPUTER PRINTOUTS AND A FLOW DIAGRAM OF THE SIMULATION PROGRAM. A BIBLIOGRAPHY IS PROVIDED. (LKM)