MODELS AND MUDDLES - AN ECOLOGICAL EXAMINATION OF HIGH SCHOOL CRIME RATES

• NCJ Number: 61523
• Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 16 Issue: 2 Dated: (JULY 1979) Pages: 307-331
• Author(s): G D GOTTFREDSON
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 25 pages
• Grant Number(s): NIE-G-78-0210
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Health, Education, and Welfare
• Corporate Author: National Council on Crime and Delinquency
• Sale Source: UMI Dissertation Services; Institute for Scientific Information
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: BASE ON A PAPER PRESENTED AT THE ANNUAL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CRIMINOLOGY, DALLAS, TEXAS, 1978

Annotation

THIS REPORT CRITICALLY EXAMINES THE USEFULNESS OF PATH ANALYSIS IN HUMAN ECOLOGY BY STUDYING THE RATE OF REPORTED HIGH SCHOOL CRIMES AND TESTING UNDERLYING RESEARCH ASSUMPTIONS; ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES ARE GIVEN.

Abstract

HUMAN ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS, THE AGGREGATE-LEVEL STUDY OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF HUMAN POPULATIONS AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT, USES CAUSAL MODELS TO HELP MAKE HYPOTHESES EXPLICIT, PROVIDE A CONVENIENT WAY OF STRUCTURING THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL CONTROLS, ALLOW THE REPRESENTATION OF COMPLEXITY IN THE RELATIONS AMONG VARIABLES, AND MAKE POSSIBLE WEAK PROBES OF CAUSAL HYPOTHESES USING ONLY CORRELATIONAL EVIDENCE. THIS STUDY USED PATH ANALYSIS TO ASSESS THE USEFULNESS OF THE HUMAN ECOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIAL PROBLEMS AND TO LEARN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE ABOUT THE DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH SCHOOL CRIME. THE MODEL USED AS EXOGENOUS VARIABLES FIVE MAJOR STATE CHARACTERISTICS: AFFLUENCE-URBANIZATION, WHITE PREDOMINANCE, SPECIALIZED AGRICULTURE, LARGE-SCALE AGRICULTURE, AND POPULATION SIZE, AS WELL AS SEVERAL INTERMEDIARY STATE AND SCHOOL SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS. THE PRINCIPLE CRITERION WAS THE NUMBER OF CRIMES IN HIGH SCHOOLS PER 1,000 STUDENTS THAT WERE REPORTED TO THE POLICE BY SCHOOL AUTHORITIES OVER A 5-MONTH PERIOD. THREE ALTERNATE CRITERIA WERE USED TO ASSESS THE CREDIBILITY OF RESEARCH RESULTS. THE STUDY FOUND THAT AFFLUENCE-URBANIZATION MAKES THE LARGEST TOTAL CONTRIBUTION TO HIGH SCHOOL CRIME, THAT IT MAKES THIS CONTRIBUTION LARGELY THROUGH EXPENDITURES PER PUPIL AND UNEMPLOYMENT, THAT AFFLUENT URBAN STATES HAVE HIGH RATES OF HIGH SCHOOL CRIME, AND THAT THE GREATER A STATE SCHOOL SYSTEM'S PER PUPIL EXPENDITURES AND THE HIGHER THE STATE'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THE HIGHER THE RATE OF HIGH SCHOOL CRIME. HOWEVER, THE VALIDITY OF THESE FINDINGS WAS WEAKENED BY MODEL SPECIFICATION ERROR AND THE NATURE OF THE PATH ANALYTIC APPROACH, WHICH PROVIDES ONLY A WEAK PROBE OF CAUSAL HYPOTHESIS. GOOD QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH, SUCH AS THE COLLECTION OF TIME SERIES DATA, SHOULD BE USED FOR FUTURE STUDIES. THE RESEARCH MODEL, NINE STATISTICAL TABLES, AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--AOP)