NCJ Number
228551
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 25 Issue: 3 Dated: September 2009 Pages: 259-286
Date Published
September 2009
Length
28 pages
Annotation
This study explored individual trajectories estimated from two different models, the growth curve modeling (GCM) and the group-based trajectory models (GTM)
Abstract
Comparison of the results highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, and reveals the uncertainty involved with measuring long term patterns of change in latent propensity to commit crimes. Although the results show that the average trajectories obtained from the different approaches matched each other, for any given individual, these approaches also showed differences. Each method identifies a different set of individuals as desistors. Additionally, both the GCM and the GTM will do a poor job of capturing the trajectories of individuals who offend late in the life-course. Moreover, analyses show that the different methods result in different numbers that will be identified as desistors of crime. The biggest difference between the approaches is not in the number of people who are identified as having a period of stable non-offending in the latter part of their career, but in the number of people who are identified as having a period of stable offending in the 10 years prior to that period. Results suggest that there should be some additional reflection on earlier research on criminal trajectories, including the data from this study. Data were collected from 3,971 individuals tried in the Netherlands in 1977 using the large-scale criminal career and life-course study (CCLS). Tables, figures, appendix, and references