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MAXIMIZING THE POWER OF CAUSAL INVESTIGATIONS - THE MODUS OPERANDI METHOD (FROM EVALUATION STUDIES REVIEW ANNUAL, V 1, 1976 BY GENE V GLASS - SEE NCJ-38147)

NCJ Number
38148
Author(s)
M SCRIVEN
Date Published
1976
Length
18 pages
Annotation
MODUS OPERANDI (MO) ANALYSIS INVOLVES A CAUSAL INFERENCE PATTERN OF IDENTIFYING THE ACTUAL CAUSE OR CAUSES OF A SPECIFIC PHENOMENON, OR TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS THAT AN INTERVENTION STRATEGY WAS THE CAUSE.
Abstract
THIS EVALUATION TECHNIQUE DISCRIMINATES BETWEEN ALTERNATIVE POSSIBLE CAUSES OF A CERTAIN EFFECT OR OUTCOME. THE MODUS OPERANDI OF A PARTICULAR CAUSE IS AN ASSOCIATED CONFIGURATION OF EVENTS, PROCESSES, OR PROPERTIES, USUALLY IN TIME SEQUENCE, WHICH CAN OFTEN BE DESCRIBED AS THE 'CHARACTERISTIC CAUSAL CHAIN' CONNECTING THE CAUSE WITH THE EFFECT. THE TOTAL SEQUENCE OF MO ANALYSIS, INFERENCES BEING, OF COURSE, PROBABILISTIC, IS AS FOLLOWS: ONE, CHECK FOR THE PRESENCE OF EACH POSSIBLE CAUSE; IF ONLY ONE, THAT IS THE CAUSE. TWO, IF MORE THAN ONE IS PRESENT, CHECK FOR COMPLETE MO'S; IF NONE, THEN NONE OF THOSE POSSIBLE CAUSES WAS A CAUSE; THREE, IF ONLY ONE MO IS COMPLETE, THE POSSIBLE CAUSE WITH WHICH THAT MO IS ASSOCIATED IS THE CAUSE. IF MORE THAN ONE COMPLETE MO IS PRESENT, THE ASSOCIATED FACTORS ARE CO-CAUSES....ELW

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