NCJ Number
59070
Journal
Yale Law Journal Volume: 88 Issue: 7 Dated: (JUNE 1979) Pages: 1408-1448
Date Published
1979
Length
41 pages
Annotation
AN ANALYSIS OF THE METHODS USED TO PREDICT THE FUTURE SUCCESS OF EMPLOYERS AND INMATES INDICATES THAT DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES MAY COMPEL THE USE OF ONE TYPE OF PREDICTIVE SCHEME OVER ANOTHER.
Abstract
TO DECIDE WHETHER NEW LEGAL RESTRAINTS SHOULD BE IMPOSED UPON EMPLOYMENT AND PAROLE SELECTION SYSTEMS, AUTHORITIES MUST IDENTIFY THE ADVANTAGES AND LIABILITIES OF THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE TECHNIQUES FOR SELECTION. QUESTIONS OF ACCURACY AND LEGITIMACY DOMINATE THE CONTROVERSY OVER PREDICTIVE TECHNIQUES OF SELECTION. METHODS USED IN OFFENDER SENTENCING, WHICH ATTEMPT TO PREDICT THE LIKLIHOOD OF THE OFFENDER COMMITTING MORE CRIMES, MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY ACCURATE TO JUSTIFY THEIR USE. THE METHOD MAY BE INCONSISTENT WITH THE QUALITIES OF THE INDIVIDUAL OFFENDER. TECHNIQUES FOR BEHAVIOR PREDICTION EITHER WILL RELY ON THE SUBJECTIVE JUDGMENT OF EXPERIENCED DECISIONMAKERS, SUCH AS JUDGES, OR WILL MAKE PREDICTIONS ACCORDING TO AN APPLICANT'S OBJECTIVE SCORE ON AN EXAMINATION WHICH ESTIMATES EXPECTED BEHAVIOR. THE FORMER, THE CLINICAL METHOD, HAS APPARENT ADVANTAGES OF FAIRNESS TO INDIVIDUALS, WHILE THE LATTER, THE STATISTICAL METHOD, IS MORE ACCURATE AND EFFICIENT. NONVOLITIONAL FACTORS, SUCH AS DRUG USE, MUST BE EXAMINED SEPARATELY IN PREDICTIVE SCHEMES. THE CHOICE OF FACTORS IN A PREDICTIVE SCHEME IMPLICATES VALUES THAT SOMETIMES POINT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. FACTORS WHICH MAY BE WITHIN AN APPLICANT'S CONTROL MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCORE, WHILE EASILY CONTROLLED FACTORS MAY NOT READILY BE RELATED TO PREDICTIONS OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE DECISIONMAKER MUST CHOOSE A PREDICTION DEVICE THAT WILL BALANCE THE COMPETING VALUES. FOOTNOTES AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED IN THE TEXT. (TWK)