NCJ Number
158493
Journal
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism Volume: 18 Issue: 3 Dated: (July- September 1995) Pages: 153-174
Date Published
1995
Length
22 pages
Annotation
This analysis of the situation in Northern Ireland since the Irish Republican Army (IRA) agreed to a ceasefire on August 31, 1994 concludes that although it currently is unlikely that the IRA will renew an armed struggle, the IRA is likely to have a significant role until its goal can be achieved without the need of force.
Abstract
The IRA's 1994 agreement to avoid armed struggle as a means to achieve a united Irish Republic seemed to violate its history and doctrine. However, the agreement generated enormous enthusiasm, has ensured peace tomorrow, and provided benefits to all concerned. For this IRA, the benefits included legitimacy and prominence. The IRA is still capable of renewing an armed struggle despite a slow but certain decay in capacity, but this currently seems unlikely. Nevertheless, those who hope that peace may erode the capacity and beliefs of those willing to use violence may be optimistic. Violence could return at some future date if the republican faith is still valid and if conditions allow tolerance of the secret army. The republican faith has always existed, but tolerance of the secret army is rare. Nevertheless, if past is prologue, the IRA will have a strong influence until it can accomplish its goal without force. (Author summary modified)