NCJ Number
74334
Date Published
1980
Length
12 pages
Annotation
During 1979-80, the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) undertook the most comprehensive inmate population forecast in recent years.
Abstract
As a result, a series of 10-year population forecasts were produced which included national and regional male inmate populations, as well as forecasts by security type, offence type, age group distribution, length of sentence distribution and several other inmate characteristics. The CSC has also ensured that any significant shifts in forecasted populations will be picked up as soon as possible and incorporated into CSC planning efforts by means of semiannual forecast updates. Four basic components were considered in making projections of the number of male inmates over the next 10 years. These were: factors affecting the inmate population in the future; future flow rates of inmates in and out of the penitentiary system and time spent in different stages of correctional process; the numerical forecasts themselves; and inmate characteristics. The sum of the regional forecasts came out lower than the national forecast. All of the regional forecasts, with the exception of Quebec, followed the same gradual increase with the peak forecast occurring in the tenth year. The national forecast is below previous forecasts and almost the same as extrapolations of the trend over the last 20 years. The forecasts will be used to provide support to current planning activities and to serve as a pilot from which to build future efforts to solidify credibility of the forecasting function. A total of five notes and four appendixes are included.