How Well Do Criminologists Explain Crime? Statistical Modeling in Published Studies (From Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, Volume 37, P 453-502, 2008, Michael Tonry, ed. - See NCJ-242161)

• NCJ Number: 242170
• Author(s): David Weisburd; Alex R. Piquero
• Date Published: 2008
• Length: 50 pages
• Sale Source: University of Chicago Press
• Publication Format: Book Chapter
• Publication Type: Literature Review
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This essay examines the state of criminology.

Abstract

Understanding of the phenomenon of crime lies at the heart of criminology. A century and a half of theory and research has accumulated, but there does not yet exist an evaluation of how much explanatory power (summarized as the amount of variance explained) there is in criminological research. Examination of empirical tests of criminological theory in Criminology between 1968 and 2005 yields three key findings. The overall level of variance explained is often very low with 80 or 90 percent unexplained. There has been no improvement over time. Individual-based models provide relatively weak explanatory power, but models that took a more crime-specific focus indicated some strength. Criminologists will need to pay much more attention to what is not explained in criminological modeling if they are to make significant advances in understanding crime. (Published Abstract)