HOW TO USE, ABUSE - AND FIGHT BACK WITH - CRIME STATISTICS

• NCJ Number: 5277
• Journal: Oklahoma Law Review Volume: 25 Issue: 2 Dated: (MAY 1972) Pages: 239-258
• Author(s): Y KAMISAR
• Date Published: 1972
• Length: 20 pages
• Corporate Author: University of Oklahoma Press
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE USE AND MANIPULATION OF CRIME STATISTICS IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE A SPECIFIC RESULT IS DISCUSSED. FACTORS AFFECTING THE RELIABILITY OF STATISTICS ARE EXAMINED.

Abstract

CRIME STATISTICS ARE USED BY MANY POLITICIANS IN ORDER TO EXCITE PUBLIC INTEREST IN FAVORED ISSUES. SEVERAL EXAMPLES ARE CITED. THE STATISTICS ARE OFTEN MISLEADING BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT SEEN IN THE PROPER RELATIONSHIPS, AND BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY IMCOMPLETE. STATISTICS PUBLISHED BY THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION SEEM TO MEASURE CRIME VOLUME AND TRENDS IN A DETACHED, OBJECTIVE WAY, BUT THESE FIGURES MIGHT HAVE LESS IMPACT IF IT WERE KNOWN THAT: (1) DURING THE PERIOD OF SPIRALING REPORTED CRIME THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN POLICE RECORDING PRACTICES AND POLICE ATTITUDES ABOUT RECORDING CRIME; AND (2) THERE IS A 'DARK FIGURE' OF UNREPORTED CRIME SEVERAL TIMES LARGER THAN THE AMOUNT WHICH APPEARS IN THE CRIME STATISTICS, AND THERE ARE MANY WAYS IN WHICH THIS UNREPORTED CRIME CAN BE TAPPED TO SWELL THE VOLUME OF REPORTED CRIME. THE REAL INCREASE IN CRIME HAS PROBABLY BEEN MUCH LESS DRAMATIC THAN THE STATISTICS INDICATE, AND WHAT HAS HAPPENED CAN PROBABLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO STRIKING CHANGES IN THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION AND MASSIVE MIGRATION TO URBAN AREAS. MANY CRITICS OF THE SUPREME COURT MATCH DECISIONS OF THE COURT DEALING WITH CONFESSIONS OR SEARCH AND SEIZURE WITH CRIME RATE INCREASES; THIS IS NOT A LOGICAL COMPARISON. SOCIAL FACTORS, SUCH AS CHANGES IN AGE COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION, CONCENTRATION OF YOUTH IN URBAN AREAS, AND UNEVEN CRIME/AREA PROFILES ARE DISCUSSED. THE ROLE OF THE COURT IS CONSIDERED IN RELATION TO ITS RESPONSIBILITY FOR A GROWING CRIME RATE. IT IS ARGUED THAT REPORTING A CRIME RATE BASED ON THE NUMBER OF CONVICTIONS MADE IS MISLEADING. MANY CRIMINAL OFFENSES GO UNREPORTED, AND THE THEORY THAT DETERRENCE WILL BE LESS IF PROSPECTIVE CRIMINALS REALIZE THAT CONVICTIONS ARE FEW IS FAULTY. EVEN IF THE CONVICTION RATE -- THE PERCENTAGE OF THOSE HELD FOR PROSECUTION AND FOUND GUILTY -- WERE 100 PERCENT, ONLY 1 REPORTED CRIME IN 6 WOULD RESULT IN CONVICTION, SINCE ONLY 1 IN 6 LEADS TO A CRIMINAL PROSECUTION. (DAG)