NCJ Number
45947
Date Published
1976
Length
290 pages
Annotation
THE MAJOR OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY IS TO EXAMINE SOME OF THE FORCES WHICH MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE GROWTH OF CRIME AND TO CONSIDER THE IMPLICATIONS OF THESE FORCES FOR THE FUTURE.
Abstract
THE PER CAPITA NUMBER OF CRIMES REPORTED IN THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION'S INDEX INCREASED BY AN AVERAGE OF 4.8 PERCENT PER YEAR BETWEEN 1952 AND 1963. THE RATE OF CRIME GROWTH JUMPED TO 6.7 PERCENT PER YEAR FROM 1963 TO 1973. THE INCREASE WAS PARTICULARLY RAPID BETWEEN 1963 AND 1969, AVERAGING 8.9 PERCENT PER YEAR. THIS ACCELERATION WAS FOLLOWED BY A MARKED DECREASE TO A 3.1 PERCENT ANNUAL RATE FROM 1969 TO 1973. THIS ANALYSIS EXPLAINS THESE PATTERNS OF CHANGE BY LOOKING AT RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE RISE IN CRIME AND A NUMBER OF ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES: THE DIFFERENCES IN ARREST RATE TRENDS BETWEEN BLACKS AND WHITES; UNEMPLOYMENT, ESPECIALLY THE DETERMINANTS AND EFFECTS OF YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT ON CRIME; SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INFLUENCES, SUCH AS POPULATION GROWTH, WOMEN IN CRIME, UNWANTED BIRTHS, AND CHILD ABUSE AND NEGLECT; THE COHORT FACTOR; AND THE EFFECTS ON CRIME OF CHANGING DETERRENCE. TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE THE EFFECTS OF THESE INFLUENCES ARE QUANTIFIED AND THEIR OVERALL IMPLICATIONS ARE CONSIDERED. YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT, DRUG ADDICTION, AND COHORT EFFECTS ALL ROSE DURING THE FIRST PERIOD UNDER STUDY (1963-1969) BUT NOT DURING THE SECOND PERIOD (1969-1973). DETERRENCE DECLINED DURING THE FIRST PERIOD, PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN CRIME. THE FACTORS CONSIDERED PREDICTED PARTICULARLY RAPID INCREASES IN YOUTH CRIME. CHANGES IN THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION DO NOT EXPLAIN THE RAPIDLY RISING CRIME RATES AMONG YOUTH. ANALYSIS OF THE COHORT FACTOR AND YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT UNDERSCORES THE MORE RAPID RISE IN VIOLENT CRIME THAN IN PROPERTY CRIME, AND ANALYSIS OF ARREST TRENDS FOR OFFENDERS 25 YEARS OR OLDER ALSO POINTS TO A PARTICULARLY RAPID RISE IN VIOLENT CRIME COMMITTED BY ADULT OFFENDERS. SUPPORTING TABULAR DATA AND AN INDEX TO THE VARIOUS TABLES ARE PROVIDED. APPENDIXES CONTAINING STATISTICAL AND GRAPHIC DATA REGARDING CITY ARREST RATES BY AGE FOR INDEX CRIMES COMMITTED BETWEEN 1952 AND 1963, GROSS COHORT AGE PROFILES OF CITY ARREST RATES, ADDITIONAL REGRESSION EQUATIONS FOR COHORT ANALYSIS, AND NET CITY ARREST RATES AND NET COHORT AGE PROFILES FOR ALL INDEX CRIMES ARE INCLUDED. (KBL)