NCJ Number
170162
Date Published
1997
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This chapter considers current trends in terrorism and projects the likely future of terrorism.
Abstract
The level of violence which the public and governments are willing to tolerate has increased in concert with the rise of terrorism in recent years. There is less talk of eliminating terrorism now and more emphasis on limiting its effectiveness. Success in peace efforts in the Middle East and in Northern Ireland (while disrupted by bombings in London and Tel Aviv from time to time) generate optimism about the potential for eliminating terrorism by eliminating the political and social causes for which the terrorists fight. Yet in both cases, political solutions acceptable to a large faction of those who have felt alienated to the point of resorting to terrorism are not acceptable to all factions of the same people. Perhaps it is true, as Brian Jenkins of the Rand Corporation suggests, that terrorism is a condition, not a specific disease, which can be treated but not cured. If this is true, then it is likely that the prognosis for this condition will be grim; terrorism could grow worse, as the technology available becomes more sophisticated. The volume of terrorist incidents occurring annually has increased, and it has also increased in lethality (the number of people killed in attacks). Bombs remain the preferred weapon of today's terrorists, but there is little evidence that terrorists have begun to use Armageddon-type weapons such as chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons; however, there is increasing use of more sophisticated versions of their more familiar tools. 5 figures, 6 suggested readings, and 4 notes