NCJ Number
195972
Journal
American Behavioral Scientist Volume: 44 Issue: 6 Dated: February 2001 Pages: 894-913
Date Published
February 2001
Length
20 pages
Annotation
This article examines trends in terrorism from 1968 through 1998 and identifies the factors that will dictate the future of terrorism.
Abstract
In order to develop the data and trends in terrorism, the article uses the definitions for "terrorism" that appear in the U.S. State Department's annual report, "Patterns of Global Terrorism." In this publication, "terrorism" means "premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience." The statistics presented in developing trends in terrorism were drawn from data collected by the CIA and subsequently submitted to the State Department for its Annual Report or collected by the State Department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security for its report, "Significant Incidents of Political Violence Against Americans." These figures show that incidents of international terrorism surged from 238 in 1971 to more than 700 in 1987. After 1987, the number of incidents trended downward, and by 1996 was reduced to levels not seen since 1971. With the decline in the number of incidents, there also has been a decrease in the number of groups engaged in terrorism. The data challenge the conventional wisdom that most of the terrorist groups are composed of Islamic radicals. In fact, the number of Islamic extremist groups engaged in international terrorism has remained relatively constant during the past decade. Moreover, the specific Islamic extremists involved in the attacks vary from year to year. Data from the past 30 years show that terrorism is a dynamic threat that can cause serious harm but can also be deterred and contained. The future of terrorism will be dictated by four key factors: actions by governments that can provoke terrorist attacks, the willingness of other states to protect or sponsor groups that engage in terrorism, the breakdown of political systems in settling ethnic or religious clashes, and the maintenance of effective security measures and responses to new threats as they develop. 5 notes and 10 references