NCJ Number
88811
Date Published
1982
Length
26 pages
Annotation
A time-series analysis of money spent annually on corrections over the total expenditures for other public services in California from 1860 to 1970 does not support Durkheim's stability of punishment hypothesis which argues that societies tend toward stable levels of punishment.
Abstract
The work of Alfred Blumstein and his colleagues has appeared to confirm the Durkheimian view that over time people sanctioned through repressive law closely approximate some constant fraction of a society's population. However, recent studies by Berk, Rauma, Messinger, and Cooley have questioned this theory, suggesting that a fruitful research approach might be 'monetizing' the relevant variables in an equilibrating model of punishment. Analysis of California data with model of punishment. Analysis of California data with model 1 -- a correcting mechanism with a fixed target that uses two variables -- demonstrates that there is a constant ratio of corrections expenditures to all other expenditures. Additional statistical tests provide further support for the lack of an equilibrating process within the model. A second model that equilibrates to different levels of punishment as historical circumstances change shows that systematic variation in the growth of corrections expenditures occurs, but its causes remain a mystery. A third model introduced the growth rates of the military and California prisons into the equations and again rejects equilibration. These findings do not rule out the possibility that other dynamic equilibrating processes may apply, and partial adjustment models show some promise for explaining these phenomena. Graphs, formulas, tables, 10 footnotes, and 28 references are included.