FORECASTING JUVENILE DELINQUENCY (FROM PROJECT SEARCH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE INFORMATION AND STATISTICS SYSTEMS, 2D - PROCEEDINGS, APRIL 30 - MAY 2, 1974, BY E CRESSWELL - SEE NCJ-25660)

• NCJ Number: 25684
• Author(s): M LEBLANC
• Date Published: 1974
• Length: 9 pages
• Grant Number(s): 73-SS-99-3312; 75-SS-99-6007
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice
• Corporate Author: SEARCH Group Inc.
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Program/Project Description
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS STUDY UTILIZES DATA ON JUVENILE DELINQUENCY IN MONTREAL FROM 1932 TO 1972 TO COMPARE VARIOUS JUVENILE DELINQUENCY FORECASTING METHODS AND TO EXPLAIN THE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE PROCESS (ARIMA).

Abstract

THE RESULTS, WHILE SUPPORTING THE LAW OF DYNAMIC AND CYCLICAL EVOLUTION OF JUVENILE DELINQUENCY, FAILED TO SHOW THE LONG-RANGE FORECASTING CAPABILITIES OF THE ARIMA METHOD. THIS METHOD, WHEN APPLIED RETROSPECTIVELY, 'UNDOUBTABLY PERMITS AN EXCELLENT FIT FOR THE OBSERVED DATA. IT ILLUSTRATES FIRST THE UPWARD TENDENCY, SECOND THE APPROXIMATE TEN YEAR CYCLES AND THIRDLY THE YEARLY FLUCTUATIONS.' HOWEVER, THE ARIMA METHOD DID NOT RETAIN THE CYCLICAL VARIATION OF DELINQUENCY AND RESULT IN LINEAR TRENDS. FURTHER RESEARCH IS SUGGESTED.