NCJ Number
59819
Journal
NUCLEAR MATERIALS MANAGEMENT Volume: 6 Issue: 3 Dated: (FALL 1977) Pages: 356-363
Date Published
1977
Length
8 pages
Annotation
A BATCHED, AGGREGATE, NETWORK SIMULATION METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE OUTCOME OF OVERT ADVERSARY ACTIONS IS DESCRIBED AS IT WOULD BE USED TO SAFEGUARD NUCLEAR MATERIALS.
Abstract
EVALUATION OF INTEGRATED SAFEGUARDS SYSTEMS INVOLVES ANALYSIS OF TWO DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT TYPES OF ADVERSARY ACTIONS, THE COVERT AND THE OVERT. A FIGURE OF MERIT CAN BE OBTAINED FOR THE CAPABILITY OF SAFEGUARDS TO PROTECT SPECIAL NUCLEAR MATERIAL WHEN ADVERSARIES ARE ATTEMPTING TO REMOVE IT. THE FIGURE OF MERIT IS A CONTAINMENT PROBABILITY WHICH WHEN GIVEN THE ACTION, PROVIDES THE PROBABILITY THAT THE MATERIAL WILL BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE NUCLEAR FACILITY. THE FIGURE OF MERIT IS ESTIMATED USING A NETWORK SIMULATION METHOD, AND IS APPLICABLE TO BOTH MATERIAL THEFT AND FACILITY SABOTAGE. IN NETWORK SIMULATION, A NETWORK IS USED TO REPRESENT A GENERAL SET OF POSSIBLE ADVERSARY AND GUARD ROUTES WHICH INTERSECT AT POTENTIAL ENGAGEMENT SITES. TACTICS DETERMINE THE CHOICE OF ROUTES AND THE DECISION TO ENGAGE OR DISENGAGE. A SIMPLE MODEL IS USED TO REPRESENT OVERT ADVERSARY ACTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PENETRATING PHYSICAL BARRIERS, TRAVERSING AREAS, AND DEALING WITH OBSTACLES. DATA REQUIRED FOR THE SIMULATIONS INCLUDE THE NUMBER AND EFFECTIVENESS OF THE ADVERSARY FORCE AND THE GUARD FORCE. PARAMETERS FOR SIMULATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN VARIED INCLUDE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF OFF-SITE FORCES AND THE DELAY TIME ASSOCIATED WITH MATERIAL ACQUISITION. NEW FEATURES OF SIMULATION CODES ARE THE USE OF MULTIPLE ACTION LINES AND DISENGAGEMENT CRITERIA. THE ENGAGEMENT MODEL AND NETWORK OF ACTION LINES ARE DIAGRAMMED. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (TWK)