ESTIMATION OF CRIME RATE BASED ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICES - SECOND INTERIM REPORT - AN APPROACH BY TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

• NCJ Number: 48237
• Author(s): M KURUSU; Y OKUSAWA; H SHINDO; T SATO; M KATSURAJIMA; T TOKUYAMA
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 7 pages
• Corporate Author: Japan Ministry of Justice
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Country: Japan
• Note: FROM BULLETIN OF THE CRIMINOLOGICAL RESEARCH DEPARTMENT, MINISTRY OF JUSTICE, JAPAN THIS ENGLISH VERSION WAS PREPARED BY MR. KENSAKU HASHIMOTO, INFORMATION AND LIAISON OFFICE, SECRETARIAT SECTION, MINISTRY OF JUSTICE, JAPAN

Annotation

BASIC SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS ARE RELATED TO SPECIFIC CRIMES FOR EACH SURVEY OVER 5-YEAR PERIODS TO DETERMINE WHETHER CORRELATIONS ARE SIMULTANEOUS AND CONSTANT.

Abstract

CRIME RATES FOR SPECIFIC CRIMES WERE CORRELATED WITH 8 BASIC SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS FOR 1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, AND 1970 TO DETERMINE IF CRIME CHANGED IMMEDIATELY WITH SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGE AND ALSO TO ASSESS WHETHER THE DEGREE OF STRENGTH OF A SOCIOECONOMIC FACTOR MAINTAINED A CONSTANT CORRELATION WITH THE RATE OF A PARTICULAR CRIME. FROM A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF CRIME RATES AND SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AS THE COEFFICIENTS ARE OBTAINED AND ARRANGED BY EACH ITEM OF THE CRIME FACTORS TO MAKE A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TRENDS OF THE YEARS SURVEYED. BASED ON THE WEIGHT VECTORS OBTAINED, THE CRIME RATES ARE ESTIMATED FOR EACH OF THE CRIMES FOR EACH YEAR OF SURVEY FOR EACH PREFECTURE ANALYZED, AND EACH OF THE ESTIMATED SCORES IS COMPARED WITH THE OBSERVED ONE TO FIND THE DIFFERENCE. FOR THE STUDY OF TIME LAG, A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS IS UNDERTAKEN BETWEEN THE EIGHT BASIC SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS FIXED AT A GIVEN TIME IN THE BASIC YEAR AND EACH OF THE CRIME RATES OBSERVED FOR A PERIOD OF 5 YEARS FROM THAT TIME. THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS AND THE INCIDENCE OF PARTICULAR CRIMES WAS FOUND TO VARY ACCORDING TO THE LENGTH OF TIME A PARTICULAR SOCIOECONOMIC TREND IS PREVALENT. THE FORMULATION OF AN EQUATION TO PREDICT A PRECISE RATE OF PARTICULAR CRIMES ACCORDING TO SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS REQUIRES A DETAILED EXAMINATION OF EACH OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS FOR EACH PERIOD OF SURVEY, WHICH WILL ENTAIL A CAREFUL CONSIDERATION OF WHICH DATA ON EACH SOCIOECONOMIC FACTOR SHOULD BE ADOPTED FOR EACH YEAR OF THE SURVEY PERIOD. A BRIEF DISCUSSION IS PROVIDED ON THE SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS RELATED TO EACH CRIME RATE STUDIED. THE CRIMES CONSIDERED INCLUDE LARCENY, FRAUD, HOMICIDE, ASSAULT, RAPE, PROFESSIONAL OR GROSS NEGLIGENCE CAUSING INJURY OR DEATH, JUVENILE DELINQUENCY, AND CRIMES BY FEMALE OFFENDERS. (RCB)