EMPIRICAL DERIVATION OF A SCALE FOR RECIDIVISM PRONENESS AMONG PAROLEES - A MULTIVARIATE MODEL

• NCJ Number: 47912
• Journal: OFFENDER REHABILITATION Volume: 2 Issue: 2 Dated: (WINTER 1977) Pages: 95-110
• Author(s): N J PALLONE; J J HENNESSY
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 16 pages
• Corporate Author: Haworth Press, Inc
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

A METHOD FOR PREDICTING RECIDIVISM PRONENESS IS DEVELOPED ON THE BASIS OF OFFENDER AND OFFENSE DATA FOR 105 YOUNG ADULT MALE FELONS ON PAROLE FROM A MEDIUM-SECURITY PRISON FOR 22 MONTHS.

Abstract

THE BIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN RECIDIVISM WHILE ON PAROLE AND 19 PREDICTOR VARIABLES ARE EXPLORED. SIGNIFICANT BIVARIATE RELATIONSHIPS ARE FOUND BETWEEN RECIDIVISM AND MARITAL STATUS, RELIGIOUS GROUP MEMBERSHIP, NATURE OF THE OFFENSE THAT LED TO CONFINEMENT (TARGET OFFENSE), NUMBER OF DRUG-RELATED CHARGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TARGET OFFENSE, MAXIMUM SENTENCE, AND NUMBER OF PRIOR SENTENCES. MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE BEST SET OF INTERACTIVE PREDICTORS COMPRISES THE FOLLOWING SIX VARIABLES: RACE-ETNICITY; RELIGIOUS GROUP MEMBERSHIP; AREA OF RESIDENCE; NUMBER OF PRIOR SENTENCES; PRIOR INSTITUTIONALIZATION; AND NUMBER OF DRUG-RELATED CHARGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TARGET OFFENSE. ON THE BASIS OF A MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS, A PREDICTION EQUATION FOR ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF RECIDIVISM IS DEVELOPED. FROM THE EQUATION A SIMPLIFIED SCALE FOR ESTIMATING RECIDIVISM PRONENESS IS DERIVED FOR THE USE OF CORRECTIONS PERSONNEL UNTRAINED IN STATISTICAL METHODS. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAM DESIGN AND CLINICAL CASE MANAGEMENT ARE SUGGESTED. TABLES, THE PREDICTION EQUATION AND SCALE, AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--LKM)