NCJ Number
45623
Date Published
1976
Length
40 pages
Annotation
THE THEORETICAL FOUNDATION, METHODS, FINDINGS, AND IMPLICATIONS OF AN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND CRIME PATTERNS FROM 1900 TO 1970 IN FOUR COUNTRIES ARE SUMMARIZED.
Abstract
SEVEN THEORIES ON THE CAUSATION OF CRIME AND THEIR BEARING ON THE QUESTION OF ECONOMIC INFLUENCES ON CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR ARE DISCUSSED. THE TRANSLATION OF THE THEORETICAL CONSTRUCTS INTO OPERATIONAL MEASURES IS OUTLINED, AS IS THE APPROACH TAKEN TO ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CHANGE ON CRIME AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM ACTIVITY. THE DATA AND STATISTICAL METHODS USED IN THE STUDY ARE DESCRIBED. CRIME DATA INCLUDE MORTALITY, CRIMES KNOWN TO POLICE, ARRESTS, TRIALS, AND IMPRISONMENTS FOR ALL MAJOR CRIMES (BEGINNING GENERALLY WITH THE YEAR 1900), AND PRISON RELEASE DATA. ECONOMIC INDICATORS INCLUDE EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND PER-CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME AND INFLATION. FINDINGS ARE SUMMARIZED RELATIVE TO THE FOLLOWING: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CYCLIC FLUCTUATIONS IN EMPLOYMENT (AND PERSONAL INCOME) AND CRIMINAL STATISTICS; RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, AS MEASURED BY CHANGES IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND CRIMINAL STATISTICS; RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, AS MEASURED BY CHANGES IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, AND CRIMINAL STATISTICS; INTERACTION AMONG THE THREE MAJOR NATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND CRIMINAL STATISTICS; COMBINED EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC AND NONECONOMIC FACTORS ON ESTIMATES OF CRIME; RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOMICIDE MORTALITY AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS; AND EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON COMPONENTS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. THE OUTSTANDING FINDING OF THE STUDY IS THAT BOTH ABSOLUTE ECONOMIC LOSS AND COMPARATIVE DECLINE IN SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS OF THE LOWEST SOCIOECONOMIC GROUPS ARE THE PREEMINENT CAUSES OF VARIATIONS IN CRIMINAL STATISTICAL TRENDS. A SECTION OF 'ADDITIONAL NOTES' INCLUDES A BRIEF DISCUSSION OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS FOR EVALUATION OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. NO TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)