NCJ Number
176578
Journal
American Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 19 Issue: 2 Dated: Spring 1995 Pages: 197-214
Date Published
1995
Length
18 pages
Annotation
County-level data from Michigan were analyzed to test the criminal opportunity/routine activities theory of burglary and to overcome three recurrent methodological problems in earlier research.
Abstract
These three problems were (1) a neglect of testing the theory in rural areas, (2) the use of indicators that confound opportunity with disorganization effects, and (3) the failure to control for alternative theories of burglary. Other studies have noted changes that have decreased the amount of home-centered activities that reduce the probability of home burglary victimization. This study used temporary residences as a new measure of opportunity that was conceptually independent of family structures. Michigan was chosen because it has the second highest number of temporary residences of any State due to its abundance of recreational land and natural resources. The data were analyzed by means of multiple regression techniques. Results were that the greater the criminal opportunity as measured by the incidence of temporary residences, the greater the rate of burglary. These results were independent of indicators taken from economic strain and social disorganization theories. The model explained 69 percent of the variance in overall burglary rates and 84 percent of the variance in rural counties. Findings indicated that although rural areas may have higher levels of social cohesion and lower anonymity, these factors are not sufficient to offset the influence of criminal opportunity. However, findings did not indicate whether criminally motivated county residents or criminally motivated visitors were responsible for the burglaries. Findings suggest that future work on burglary, especially that which includes rural samples, should seriously consider measuring the incidence of temporary residences, although some States may have too few of them to have an impact on local crime rates. Figures, table, notes, and 52 references (Author abstract modified)