NCJ Number
61020
Date Published
1978
Length
88 pages
Annotation
AN INDUSTRY SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL FOR THE ECOMONICS OF CRIME WAS DEVELOPED AND TESTED TO IDENTIFY POLICY IMPLICATIOINS REGARDING AUTO THEFT. U.S. ANNUAL AUTO THEFT DATA WERE USED IN THE TEST MODEL.
Abstract
THE MODEL WAS ANALOGOUS TO A STANDARD INDUSTRY SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNCTION. IT WAS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT OFFENDERS, AS A GROUP, RESPOND TO INCENTIVES MUCH AS NONOFFENDERS DO. THE CRIME INDUSTRY MODEL INCLUDED A MARKET FOR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION INCLUDING ILLEGAL LABOR SERVICES, A PRODUCTION SECTOR PRODUCING ILLEGAL GOODS AND SERVICES, A PRODUCT MARKET FOR THESE GOODS AND SERVICES, AND A CRIME PREVENTION SECTOR LINKING THESE DIFFERENT SECTORS. EMPIRICAL DATA WERE USED TO ESTIMATE FIVE EQUATIONS. RESULTS SHOWED THAT DEMAND FOR STOLEN CARS WAS POSTIVELY RELATED TO REAL INCOME AND NEGATIVELY RELATED TO THE PRICE OF STOLEN CARS. THE PROBABILITY OF ARREST HAD A MUCH GREATER DETERRENT EFFECT ON THE DEMAND FOR STOLEN CARS THAN DID THE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION. IN CONTRAST, FOR THE SUPPLY OF STOLEN CARS, THE PROBABILITY OF ARREST HAD A MINOR, BUT SIGNIFICANT EFFECT, WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION WAS INSIGNIFICANT. MORE POLICE OFFICERS PER CAPITA INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF ARREST, BUT THIS PROBABILITY DECREASED AS THE AGGREGATE CRIME INDEX INCREASED. RESULTS FOR THE PUBLIC PREVENTION SECTOR WERE INCONCLUSIVE. THE MODEL WAS ABLE TO PREDICT THE OBSERVED AUTO THEFT INDEX, THE PROBABILITY OF ARREST, THE PER CAPITA POLICE FORCE, AND THE REAL POLICE WAGE RATE, BUT NOT THE PRICE OF STOLEN CARS. RESULTS INDICATED THAT INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF ARREST OR OF CONVICTION WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE NUMBER OF CARS STOLEN. FIGURES, TABLES, FOOTNOTES, AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE INCLUDED. FOR THE COMPLETE VOLUME OF WHICH THIS STUDY IS A PART, SEE NCJ61013. (CFW)