Domestic Burglary Repeats and Space-Time Clusters: The Dimensions of Risk

• NCJ Number: 208872
• Journal: European Journal of Criminology Volume: 2 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2005 Pages: 67-92
• Author(s): Kate J. Bowers; Shane D. Johnson
• Date Published: January 2005
• Length: 26 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study examined the space and time clustering of domestic burglaries in order to refine police priorities.

Abstract

The effective use of police resources depends on the ability to predict where and when crimes are likely to occur. In a previous study, the authors demonstrated that domestic burglaries clustered within time and space, suggesting that police resources could be utilized in a time- and space-limited deployment around the burglary. The current analysis expanded on this research by further examining whether repeat victimization and near victimization varied by type of area and type of housing. Officially recorded crime data on 75,101 domestic burglaries were obtained from the Merseyside Police in the United Kingdom; data included address of the offense, grid reference of the offense, date of offense, victim’s name, time of offense, and type of property victimized. Analyses were conducted for all 118 local authority wards for a 1-year period from April 1999 to March 2000. Results indicated four main findings: (1) space-time clustering of domestic burglaries was more apparent in affluent areas despite the greater occurrence of repeat victimization in deprived areas; (2) houses next to burglarized houses were at a significantly higher risk of being burglarized than houses located further away, particularly within 1 week of the initial burglary; (3) houses on the same side of the street as a burglarized home were at significantly greater risk of being burglarized, even after accounting for linear distances between homes; and (4) houses with the probability of being identical in floor layout to a burglarized home were slightly more likely to be burglarized. The findings suggest that police should focus on houses up to 400 meters from a previously burglarized home for 2 months following the initial burglary. Future research may focus upon similarities of burglarized properties. Tables, figures, references