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Does Gun Prevalence Affect Teen Gun Carrying After All?

NCJ Number
205887
Journal
Criminology Volume: 42 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2004 Pages: 27-54
Author(s)
Philip J. Cook; Jens Ludwig
Date Published
February 2004
Length
28 pages
Annotation
This study used microdata from the 1995 National Survey of Adolescent Males (NSAM), a nationally representative survey, to test the claim by previous research that American adolescents usually have ready access to guns regardless of local gun prevalence or regulation.
Abstract
The NSAM surveyed a nationally representative sample of all adolescent males ages 15 to 19 who were living in households in the United States between February and November 1995. A total of 1,729 respondents completed the general NSAM questionnaire, yielding a response rate of 75 percent. Most of the current analysis focused on the sample of respondents who were under age 18 at the time of the survey. This reduced the selected sample to 1,151. Of primary interest for this study was the two questions on weapons. The questionnaire asked the following: "During the past 30 days, on how many days did you carry a gun?" and "During the past 30 days, on how many days did you carry some other type of weapon such as a knife, razor or club?" The analysis also considered the frequency with which the respondent reported being in a physical fight, being threatened with a weapon, or threatening others with a weapon during the 12 months prior to the interview. The findings indicate that 10 percent of the respondents carried a gun at least once a month in 1995, and those who carried a gun at least once carried one an average of six times. A still greater proportion (27 percent) carried a knife, razor, or other weapon in the previous 30 days, and those who carried a weapon at least once averaged nearly 12 times. These weapons were often put to use, as suggested by the reports on threats during the previous 12 months; 20 percent had been threatened by a gun or knife, and nearly 25 percent had threatened someone else. To test the hypothesis that local gun prevalence and availability have no effect on adolescent involvement with guns, a geo-coded version of the data was used, which included an indicator of the county of residence for each respondent. The percentage of suicides committed with guns was used as a proxy for the prevalence of gun ownership at the county level. The individual respondent's likelihood of carrying a gun and other outcome variables were analyzed with multivariate logistic regression that included a list of individual characteristics, with the intent of controlling for demographic and socioeconomic circumstances. Variables included the respondent's school status, age, race, and region. A number of other measures of family socioeconomic status were also included. The analysis found that the likelihood of gun carrying increased markedly with the prevalence of gun ownership in a given community. The carrying of other types of weapons was unrelated to the local prevalence of gun ownership. The prevalence of youths carrying both guns and other weapons was positively related to the local rate of youth violence as measured by the robbery rate, which is evidence that weapons carrying by youths was motivated in part by self-protection. 6 tables, 20 notes, and 35 references