DISCOURAGING NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND - NON-STATE ENTITIES (FROM STUDIES IN NUCLEAR TERRORISM, 1979, BY AUGUSTUS R NORTON AND MARTIN H GREENBERG - SEE NCJ-62842)

• NCJ Number: 62845
• Author(s): T GREENWOOD
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 8 pages
• Corporate Author: G K Hall
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE RELATIVELY LIMITED NUMBER OF CASUALTIES INFLICTED BY TERRORIST ACTION TO DATE MAY INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TERRORISTS WILL USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS OR RESORT TO MASS VIOLENCE.

Abstract

ASSUMING EQUAL INCENTIVE, A SIZABLE, ORGANIZED GROUP IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED IN THE FABRICATION OF A NUCLEAR WEAPON THAN IS ANY INDIVIDUAL OR SMALL GROUP. ALTHOUGH THE LARGER GROUPS, SUCH AS THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION MIGHT HAVE THE CAPACITY FOR NUCLEAR TERRORISM, THEY GENERALLY REFRAIN FROM MASS KILLING. THE IMMEDIATE GOALS OF REVOLUTIONARY, NONCRIMINAL GROUPS HAVE BEEN QUITE LIMITED. GRAND OBJECTIVES OF NATIONALISM CANNOT BE ACHIEVED WITHIN THE TIME SCALE OF A SINGLE ACT OF TERROR, BUT REQUIRE GRADUAL WINNING OF POPULAR SUPPORT. REVOLUTIONARIES HAVE AVOIDED MANY VERY DESTRUCTIVE ACTS THAT THEY COULD ACCOMPLISH WITHOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS, PRESUMABLY BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN NO NEED FOR SUCH ACTS. NATIONALLY-ORIENTED GROUPS HAVE THEIR OWN STAKES IN THE STATUS QUO WHICH THEY DO NOT WISH TO LOSE BY RESORTING TO MASS VIOLENCE. GROUPS ENGAGED IN PROTRACTED CONFLICT WISH TO LEGITIMIZE THEIR REQUESTS FOR POLITICAL SUPPORT AND INTERNATIONAL AID. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE GROUPS WHICH HAVE THE CAPABILITY FOR NUCLEAR TERRORISM DO NOT WISH TO JEOPARDIZE THEIR BASES OF SUPPORT AND SANCTUARY. NEVERTHELESS, A REVOLUTIONARY GROUP COULD USE THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM, OR COULD RESULT IN RUTHLESS RETALIATION. INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND PROPER SECURITY SHOULD PREVENT SMALL GROUPS AND INDIVIDUALS FROM STEALING NUCLEAR WEAPONS OR MATERIAL. NO REFERENCES ARE GIVEN. (TWK)