NCJ Number
212610
Journal
Criminology Volume: 43 Issue: 4 Dated: November 2005 Pages: 873-904
Date Published
November 2005
Length
32 pages
Annotation
This paper examines the role of group-based trajectory modeling in the study of the developmental origins of crime, violence, and psychopathology.
Abstract
The term developmental trajectory describes change in an individual over a relatively long period. Charting developmental trajectories and studying their causes are among the most fundamental and empirically important research topics in the area of medicine and the social and behavioral sciences, as well as criminology. The goal of this paper is to elaborate upon the caution used about the risks of reification and discuss three misconceptions about group-based trajectory modeling that stem, in part, from misunderstandings about the approximating role of trajectory group: (1) that individuals actually belong to a trajectory group; (2) that the number of trajectory groups in a sample is immutable; and (3) that the trajectories of group members follow the group-level trajectory in lock step. In addition, an attempt is made to make the point that group-based statistical modeling is not bound at the hip to the testing of taxonomic theories. It is important, when describing these misconceptions for users and consumers of the analyses to remember that individuals do not actually belong to a trajectory group, that the number of trajectory groups in a sample is not immutable, and that individuals do not follow the group-level trajectory in lock step. Tables, figures, references