DEVELOPMENT OF A PAROLEE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM USING DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS

• NCJ Number: 46638
• Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 15 Issue: 1 Dated: (JANUARY 1978) Pages: 92-108
• Author(s): L D BROWN
• Date Published: 1977
• Length: 17 pages
• Corporate Author: National Council on Crime and Delinquency
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

A MODEL FOR PREDICTING PAROLE SUCCESS IS TESTED AND VALIDATED WITH 2-YEAR FOLLOWUP DATA ON 13,000 PAROLEES RELEASED IN 1969 FROM PRISONS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.

Abstract

THE MODEL, WHICH EMPLOYS MULTIPLE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS, TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE FOLLOWING VARIABLES: INCARCERATION DURATION; AGE UPON RELEASE; SEX; ADMISSION TYPE (PROBATION OR PAROLE VIOLATOR, OR NEW COURT COMMITMENT); OFFENSE TYPE (PROPERTY OR PERSONAL); SENTENCE TYPE (SIMPLE OR MULTIPLE); NUMBER OF PRIOR PRISON COMMITMENTS; NUMBER OF PRIOR NONPRISON SENTENCES; DRUG USE; AND ALCOHOL USE. RESULTS OF BOTH THE TEST AND VALIDATION APPLICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DISCRIMINANT MODEL IS USEFUL FOR CLASSIFYING PAROLEES AS GOOD OR POOR RISKS. THE MULTIVARIATE RESULTS PROVE SUPERIOR TO THE RESULTS OF UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS AND DEMONSTRATE THAT THE LATTER CAN BE MISLEADING. THE BEST UNIVARIATE DISCRIMINATOR -- OFFENSE TYPE -- RANKS SIXTH IN THE MULTIVARIATE MODEL. THE BEST MULTIVARIATE DISCRIMINATORS -- AGE UPON RELEASE AND NUMBER OF PRIOR PRISON COMMITMENTS -- RANK SEVENTH AND FIFTH, RESPECTIVELY, IN A UNIVARIATE FRAMEWORK. SUPPORTING DATA AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)