DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A BAYESIAN DECISION-MAKING MODEL TO JUDICIAL SENTENCING

• NCJ Number: 65683
• Author(s): M A ROBARGE
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 192 pages
• Sale Source: UMI Dissertation Services
• Publication Type: Thesis/Dissertation
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: SPECIAL PRICES FOR ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS. STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT ALBANY - DOCTORAL DISSERTATION

Annotation

A BAYESIAN MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF INDIVIDUAL DECISIONMAKING BEHAVIOR THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO THE AREA OF JUDICIAL SENTENCING IS DEVELOPED AND TESTED.

Abstract

AN INITIAL REVIEW OF JUDICIAL SENTENCING STUDIES PROVIDES A FAIRLY COMPLETE SAMPLE OF PRECEDENT STUDIES CHACACTERIZED BY THE LACK OF A STRICT STATISTICAL PERSPECTIVE IN ANALYZING JUDICIAL SENTENCING. NEXT, AN ANALYSIS OF THEORETICAL APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF INFORMATION AND DECISIONMAKING CONCLUDES THAT, IN ORDER TO BE RESPONSIVE TO THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LIMITS OF INDIVIDUAL JUDICIAL DECISIONMAKERS, A DESCRIPTIVE FACTORIAL MODEL SHOULD BE USED TO COMPLEMENT THE BAYESIAN APPROACH IN THE OVERALL RESEARCH DESIGN. FOR EVALUATING DECISIONMAKING BEHAVIOR UNDER RISK, THE FACTORIAL DESIGN PROVIDES CONTROL OVER THE TYPE AND SERIOUSNESS LEVEL OF INFORMATION EMPLOYED WITHIN A SENTENCING SIMULATION. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EXPLANATORY AND PREDICTIVE POWERS OF THE DESCRIPTIVE MODEL AND OF THE BAYESIAN MODEL SUPPORTS THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SENTENCING DECISIONS OF INDIVIDUAL JUDGES REFLECT THE SERIOUSNESS LEVEL OF THE INFORMATION: MORE SERIOUS INFORMATION LEADS TO MORE SEVERE DISPOSITIONS. IN ADDITION, THE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SENTENCING DISPOSITIONS GIVES STRONG SUPPORT TO THE BAYESIAN 'EXPECTED PAY-OFF GREATER THAN THE LOSS' GAMBLING RULE. APPLIED TO ACTUAL SENTENCING SITUATIONS, THE BAYESIAN MODEL ANALOGY OF THE SENTENCING PROCESS TO A GAMBLING SITUATION UNDER RISK OFFERS THE JUDICIAL DECISIONMAKER A CONSISTENT METHOD FOR SELECTING THE PROBATION OR INCARCERATION ALTERNATIVE IN CASES WHERE DISCRIMINATION FROM THE AVAILABLE INFORMATION IS DIFFICULT. ALSO, THE COMPARISON OF THE PREDICTED RESULTS OF THIS MODEL TO ACTUAL SENTENCES COULD PROVIDE A MEANS FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF EXTERNAL CONSTRAINTS PLACED UPON THE SENTENCING JUDGE. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE BAYESIAN MODEL, WITH ITS UTILITARIAN AND RATIONAL DEFINITION OF DECISIONMAKING, IS A PROMISING APPROACH FOR THE MODELING AND PRACTICAL EVALUATION OF JUDICIAL BEHAVIOR WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A SOCIAL DEFENSE SENTENCING POLICY. TABLES, FIGURES, FOOTNOTES, AND ABOUT 60 REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. THE APPENDIXES CONTAIN PRESENTENCE CASE FORMATS, INSTRUCTION SHEETS USED FOR THE STUDY, A SCALING SHEET INCORPORATING THE BAYESIAN UNCERTAINTY AND UTILITY VARIABLES, THE DECISION SHEET, A LIST OF FINAL OPEN-ENDED QUESTIONS, AND SUGGESTIONS FOR RESEARCH REPLICATION. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)