NCJ Number
133644
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 19 Issue: 6 Dated: (1991) Pages: 569-574
Date Published
1991
Length
6 pages
Annotation
This author responds to a criticism of an earlier article of his in which he demonstrated that detrended UCR and NCS crime rates exhibit much stronger convergence than undetrended rates. The critique centered on three points: convergence and inconsistencies between UCR and NCS crime rates; the substantive meaning of detrended crime rates; and the relevance of detrended crime rates for time series analysis.
Abstract
The majority of the convergent validity coefficients found between detrended UCR and NCS crime rates are high and statistically significant. Detrended crime rates have clear substantive meanings in terms of determining the relationship of changes in crime rates based on changes in other variables. Undetrended crime rates are of interest to criminologists and policymakers. Researchers detrend these data in time series to examine the relationships between year-to-year changes in crime rates and other variables. The correlations between detrended UCR and NCS data suggest that they may produce similar results in ARIMA time series analyses. 1 figure, 4 notes, and 12 references