NCJ Number
65257
Date Published
1979
Length
166 pages
Annotation
A THEORETICAL MODEL OF THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF POLICE PRESENCE IS PROPOSED AND EMPIRICALLY TESTED USING CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA, WITH CITIES AS THE UNIT OF ANALYSIS.
Abstract
A REVIEW OF DETERRENCE LITERATURE SHOWED THAT THE POLICE VIEW OF CONSPICUOUS CONTROL AS A CRIME DETERRENT AND THE CRIMINOLOGISTS' ASSUMPTION THAT THE THREAT OF PUNISHMENT DOES NOT DETER CRIME HAVE RESULTED IN NEGLECT OF DETERRENCE AS AN ISSUE FOR POLICY EVALUATION OR SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY. THE MODEL DISCUSSED POSTULATES A THEORY OF DETERRENCE DERIVED FROM THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL SOCIOLOGICAL. ECONOMETRIC, AND EVALUATIVE RESEARCH. THE MODEL'S MAIN FEATURES ARE THE SIMULTANEOUS RELATIONSHIP OF CRIME AND THE POLICE, THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN OBJECTIVE CERTAINTY AND PERCEIVED CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT, AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLICE PRESENCE AND THE CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT. THE MODEL INCLUDES 5 ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES AND 11 EXOGENOUS VARIABLES. A TWO-TIER POPULATION SAMPLE WAS USED FOR ANALYSIS. DATA WERE TESTED BY TWO-STAGE LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION. CRIME SPECIFIC ANALYSIS WAS CONDUCTED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT CRIMES WHICH ARE MORE RATIONAL AND THOSE WHICH ARE MORE VISIBLE WOULD BE MOST DETERRABLE. THE OFFENSES WHICH FILLED THE MODEL MOST CONSISTENTLY WERE RAPE AND AUTO THEFT. DATA ALSO SHOWED THAT PER CAPITA POLICE ARE A STRONG POSITIVE FUNCTION OF MURDER, RAPE, ROBBERY, AND AUTO THEFT, PROBABLY BECAUSE THESE CRIMES GENERATE POLITICAL DEMAND FOR MORE POLICE. LEVELS OF POLICE PRESENCE HAD NO SUBSTANTIAL RELATIONSHIP TO RATES OF CLEARANCE. FUTURE RESEARCH IS RECOMMENDED ON THE DYNAMICS PRESENCE AND CLEARANCE RATES, AND PERCEPTION OF POLICE PRESENCE. EXTENSIVE TABLES, DIAGRAMS, AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE INCLUDED. (CFW)