NCJ Number
31778
Date Published
1975
Length
20 pages
Annotation
RE-EXAMINATION OF THE NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE USE OF THE DEATH PENALTY AND HOMICIDE RATES IN THE UNITED STATES OVER THE LAST FOUR DECADES PROPOSED IN A 1975 PAPER BY ISAAC EHRLICH.
Abstract
AFTER THE REPLICATION OF EHRILICH'S MURDER RATE FUNCTION (A REGRESSIVE EQUATION) IS DESCRIBED, THE MODEL IS TESTED FOR TEMPORAL HOMOGENEITY AND EXAMINED FOR SENSITIVITY TO CHANGES IN FUNCTIONAL FORM. THIS RE-EXAMINATION REVEALS THAT THE TIME SERIES MODEL AND DATA USED BY EHRLICH PERMIT NO INFERENCE WHATSOEVER ABOUT THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF CAPITAL PUNISHMENT. HIS FINDINGS ARE ALSO FOUND TO BE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO ESSENTIALLY ARBITRARY CHOICES OF MODEL SPECIFICATION AND TO THE PERIOD OVER WHICH THE MODEL IS ESTIMATED. MOREOVER, ESTIMATION OF A SINGLE STRUCTURAL EQUATION SHARPLY LIMITED THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF THE ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS. THE APPENDIX LISTS THE DATA SOURCES USED FOR THIS RE-EXAMINATION. A BIBLIOGRAPHY IS ALSO INCLUDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)