NCJ Number
59764
Journal
International Annals of Criminology Volume: 17 Issue: 1 & 2 Dated: (1978) Pages: 21-50
Date Published
1978
Length
30 pages
Annotation
THIS REPORT DESCRIBES A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF ARREST AND CONVICTION ON CRIME RATES FOR INDIAN STATES AND TERRITORIES FOR THE PERIOD 1967-73.
Abstract
WHILE RECENT YEARS HAVE WITNESSED A NUMBER OF SUCH INVESTIGATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES, ANALYSES HAVE NOT BEEN CONDUCTED IN OTHER COUNTRIES. A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF PUNISHMENT ON CRIME, AND ON INVESTIGATIONS EXAMINING THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF ARREST AND CONVICTION TO CRIME, POINTS TO THE IMPORTANCE OF ARREST, CONVICTION IN COURT, AND IMPRISONMENT IN THE U.S. THIS PATTERN WAS ADDRESSED IN A STUDY ON SELECTED SERIOUS CRIMES FOR STATES AND TERRITORIES IN INDIA. CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERRENCE DOCTRINE AND PREVIOUS INVESTIGATIONS, A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CERTAINTY OF ARREST AND CONVICTION AND OFFENSE RATES WERE HYPOTHESIZED. CERTAINTY OF ARREST WAS OPERATIONALLY DEFINED AS THE NUMBER OF ARRESTS FOR EACH TYPE OF CRIME DIVIDED BY THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SUCH CRIMES REPORTED BY POLICE. CERTAINTY OF CONVICTION WAS LIKEWISE MEASURED, RESULTING IN AN ARREST AND CONVICTION INDEX FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING CRIMES: MURDER, RAPE, ROBBERY, HOUSEBREAKING, AND THEFT. THE FINDINGS PROVIDED SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DETERRENCE ARGUMENT (LIKE EARLIER INVESTIGATIONS IN THE U.S.). CONTRARY TO THE HYPOTHESIS, A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSE RELATIONSHIP WAS NOT FOUND BETWEEN THE CERTAINTY OF ARREST AND CONVICTION AND OFFENSE RATES FOR EACH CRIME. RATHER, THE ANALYSIS REVEALED SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PUNISHMENT AND RATE VARIABLES. THE CERTAINTY OF ARREST-OFFENSE RATE RESULTS WERE FOUND TO BE IN THE PREDICTED NEGATIVE DIRECTION FOR RAPE, THEFT, AND BREAKING AND ENTERING. IN INDIA, AS IN THE U.S., ARREST PROVIDES A LESS EFFECTIVE DETERRENT TO CRIMES AGAINST PERSONS THAN CRIMES AGAINST PROPERTY. FINDINGS FOR CONVICTION WERE NEGATIVE AND INCONSISTENT WITH THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS. DUE TO THE POSSIBLE METHODOLOGICAL AND THEORETICAL LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH, AS WELL AS THE MIXED FINDINGS, IT IS SUGGESTED THAT FURTHER RESEARCH BE DONE IN THE FIELD. TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (MJW)