DETERRENCE AND THE DEATH PENALTY - SOME FURTHER ANAYSIS

• NCJ Number: 46665
• Author(s): D O CLONINGER
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 24 pages
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THE INDEPENDENCE OF HOMICIDE AND EXECUTION RATES IS TESTED, USING THE ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION ON CROSS SECTIONAL DATA.

Abstract

THE SELECTED TESTING APPROACH IS INTENDED TO ACCOMMODATE MOST OF THE CRITICISMS LEVIED AGAINST A PREVIOUS STUDY THAT USED ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS IN SHOWING AN APPARENT DETERRENT EFFECT IN THE USE OF CAPITAL PUNISHMENT. IN THIS STUDY THE TESTS CONDUCTED WERE CROSS SECTIONAL AND EMPLOYED THE ARITHMETIC REGRESSION FORM. THE REGRESSION EQUATIONS USED HAD A FORMAT THAT SHOWED THE HOMICIDE RATE EQUALING THE REGRESSION CONSTANT, PLUS THE SUMS OF APPROPRIATE REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS TIMES THEIR RESPECTIVE RELEVANT INDEPENDENT VARIABLES, PLUS THE RANDOM DISTURBANCE TERM. THUS, THE EQUATION REPRESENTS A SUPPLY-TYPE FUNCTION OF HOMICIDE RATES. THE OBSERVATIONS WERE FROM 47 STATES FOR THE YEAR 1960. THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLE WAS THE 1960 REPORTED HOMICIDE RATE BY STATE IN THE 1960 UNIFORM CRIME REPORT. THE CONFINEMENT RATE WAS A PROXY MEASURE OF THE RISK OF ARREST AND CONVICTION AND WAS DETERMINED BY DIVIDING THE 1960 COMMITMENT TO STATE PRISONS FOR HOMICIDE BY THE 1959 REPORTED HOMICIDE OFFENSES. TWO ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF THE EXECUTION RATE WERE DEVELOPED WITH SEPARATE REGRESSION TESTS CONDUCTED USING EACH VARIABLE. THE FIRST MEASURE WAS THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF EXECUTION FOR 1960, GIVEN ARREST AND CONVICTION OF A HOMICIDE OFFENDER. THE SECOND MEASURE OF THE EXECUTION RATE WAS THE RATIO OF EXECUTIONS FOR HOMICIDE DURING THE PERIOD 1955-1959 TO THE REPORTED NUMBER OF HOMICIDES DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THE REMAINING VARIABLES WERE PRIMARILY ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWN IN OTHER STUDIES TO HAVE SOME CAUSATIVE RELEVANCE TO CRIME RATES. THE LAST VARIABLE WAS A DUMMY TO INDICATE SOUTH VERSUS NON-SOUTH REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN HOMICIDE RATES AND ATTITUDES TOWARD ENFORCEMENT. RESULTS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE THAT THE STATE HOMICIDE RATE WAS NEGATIVELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMMEDIATE PAST 5-YEAR AVERAGE EXECUTION RATE, AFTER ALLOWING FOR THE EFFECT OF OTHER VARIABLES. DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS ARE INCLUDED IN THE APPENDIX. (RCB)