NCJ Number
234129
Editor(s)
Harold A. Linstone,
Murray Turoff
Date Published
1975
Length
640 pages
Annotation
This book provides background information for professional designers and users of Delphi surveys in forecasting.
Abstract
This book is a collection of papers that provide background information and discussion on why the Delphi method was used in a particular setting and how it was implemented. The editors of this book describe the Delphi technique as "a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem." The structured communication is accomplished in several ways: through feedback of individual contribution so information and knowledge; through assessment of the group judgment or view; through opportunities for individuals to revise views; and through a degree of anonymity for the individual responses. The book is divided into eight primary areas: 1) Introduction - examines the characteristics and evolution of Delphi; 2) Philosophy - two papers on the philosophical and methodological foundations of Delphi; 3) General Applications - eight papers on practical applications of Delphi; 4) Evaluation - five papers that evaluate the use of Delphi; 5) Cross-Impact Analysis - three papers that examine the cross-impact problem; 6) Specialized Techniques - four papers that explore other uses of Delphi; 7) Computers and the Future of Delphi - five papers that examine the use of computers in the application of the Delphi method; and ) Eight Basic Pitfalls: A Checklist - examines eight areas that could cause problems for Delphi designers. Bibliography and index