NCJ Number
170410
Journal
Justice Quarterly Volume: 14 Issue: 2 Dated: (June 1997) Pages: 209-241
Date Published
1997
Length
33 pages
Annotation
This article examines whether prior inconsistency in findings about the impact of unemployment on crime is the result of historical contingency caused by changes in the social structures of accumulation (SSAs) associated with the development of 20th-century capitalism.
Abstract
The authors explored this issue by comparing the relationship between official measures of unemployment and the crimes of burglary, robbery, assault, and homicide during four phases of recent U.S. economic development identified by SSA theorists: economic exploration from 1933 to 1947, economic consolidation from 1948 to 1966, economic decay from 1967 to 1979, and a new period of exploration from 1980 to 1992. The authors propose that the unemployment-crime (U-C) relationship is shaped not merely by the fact of unemployment, but rather by its social meaning within developmental stages of social structures of accumulation. Time-series analysis of the U-C relationship within each SSA stage from 1933 to 1992 supports the authors' hypothesis that periods of structural unemployment will be characterized by a stronger U-C relationship than those in which unemployment is primarily frictional. The authors then validate the periodic shifts in the U-C relationship suggested by SSA theory by applying time-varying parameter analysis to the entire series from 1933 to 1992. On the basis of these findings, the authors conclude that crime-control policies and future research into the relationship between unemployment and crime should take into consideration the historically contingent nature of the U-C relationship. 2 tables, 1 figure, 66 references