NCJ Number
63090
Date Published
1978
Length
9 pages
Annotation
NEW YORK CITY DATA ARE USED TO TEST THE USEFULNESS OF A MODEL THAT INDICATES THE IMPACT OF CRIME CONTROL ACTIVITIES ON REPORTED CRIME.
Abstract
IN THE MODEL, CRIME POTENTIAL IS A FUNCTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS EXOGENOUS TO THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. AN ECONOMIC INDICATOR IS USED, REFERRED TO AS THE ECONOMIC INDICATOR'S INDEX (EOI) (DETERMINED BY THE NUMBER OF MALES, AGES 16-24, ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT ROSTER). CRIME RESISTANCE IS A FUNCTION OF THE OPERATIONS OF THE ESTABLISHED CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. THE RESISTANCE OR DETERRENCE PRESENTED BY THE SYSTEM IS A FUNCTION OF THE CERTAINTY OF APPREHENSION AND CONVICTION; THIS FUNCTION IS A MEASURE CALLED THE CRIME RESISTANCE INDEX (CRI). USING THIS FRAMEWORK, A SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF NEW YORK CITY'S CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND CRIME GENERATION SYSTEM WAS PERFORMED. CRIME DATA AND EOI AND CRI DATA WERE DETERMINED FOR NEW YORK CITY FROM 1966 TO 1972 AND CORRELATIONS WERE COMPUTED. TAKEN SEPARATELY, THE EOI AND CRI DO NOT HAVE STRONG CORRELATIONS WITH FELONY REPORTS, BUT TOGETHER THEY ARE SIGNIFICANT IN EXPLAINING FLUCTUATIONS IN REPORTED CRIME. OTHER FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS WERE THAT PROBABILITY OF APPREHENSION WAS VIRTUALLY UNCORRELATED WITH REPORTED FELONIES; THE ARREST RATE IS HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH THE REPORTED CRIME RATE; AND THE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION DROPPED BETWEEN 1966 AND 1968, WHILE THE ARREST RATE DID NOT RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MODEL IS VALUABLE, BECAUSE IT STUDIES THE CRIME CONTROL SYSTEM FOR ONE CITY AS IT CHANGES OVER TIME, HAS USE FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE OFFICIALS IN UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE CRIME CONTROL SYSTEM, AND PROVIDES THE BASIS FOR A SCIENCE OF CRIME CONTROL. GRAPHIC DATA AND REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (RCB)