NCJ Number
45101
Date Published
1977
Length
56 pages
Annotation
CALLS FOR POLICE SERVICE FROM 1974 THROUGH 1977 FOR 17 SHOPPING CENTERS IN A SUBURBAN COUNTY ARE USED TO IDENTIFY FACTORS FOR PREDICTING COSTS OF POLICING SHOPPING CENTERS AND FOR DEVELOPING MANPOWER ALLOCATIONS.
Abstract
SINCE 1974, THE POLICE DEPARTMENT OF PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY, MARYLAND, A SUBURBAN AREA OF WASHINGTON, D.C., HAS KEPT A SEPARATE TABULATION OF POLICE SERVICE CALLS TO SHOPPING CENTERS. THIS STUDY FOCUSED ON 17 CENTERS OF VARYING SIZES IN VARIOUS PARTS OF THE COUNTY TO ISOLATE FACTORS RELATED TO POLICE CALLS. A PREDICTIVE MODEL IS DEVELOPED TO HELP POLICE DETERMINE COSTS OF PATROL SERVICE WHICH WILL BE REQUIRED WHEN A NEW CENTER IS BUILT. THE MODEL CAN ALSO HELP THE SHOPPING CENTER MANAGER ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF INCIDENTS WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED, ANTICIPATE THE NEGATIVE RAMIFICATIONS, AND HIRE OR INCREASE A PRIVATE SECURITY FORCE. THE MODEL CAN ALSO BE USED AS A MANAGEMENT EVALUATION TOOL FOR SHOPPING CENTERS. DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL IS DESCRIBED IN DETAIL. ORIGINALLY, 13 VARIABLES WERE CONSIDERED: INSIDE INCIDENTS, OUTSIDE INCIDENTS (IN PARKING LOTS AND ADJACENT STREETS), ENCLOSED MALL, TOTAL ACRES, PARKING SPACES, SQUARE FOOTAGE OF PHYSICAL PLANT, NUMBER OF STORES, NUMBER OF THEATERS, NUMBER OF AMUSEMENT CENTERS, SECURITY PERSONNEL, GROSS SALES FOR 1 YEAR IN D0LLARS, RATIO OF SALES IN DOLLARS DIVIDED BY SQUARE FEET OF PHYSICAL PLANT, AND RATIO OF INSIDE INCIDENTS TO OUTSIDE INCIDENTS. MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES WERE NUMBER OF STORES, NUMBER OF SECURITY PERSONNEL, AND GROSS SALES, WITH GROSS SALES BEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT VARIABLE IN THE EQUATION. THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF THEATERS AND AMUSEMENT CENTERS MADE NO DIFFERENCE, AND NEITHER DID THE TYPE OF ARCHITECTURE (ENCLOSED ON UNENCLOSED MALL). THE TOTAL ACRES, NUMBER OF PARKING SPACES, AND SQUARE FOOTAGE OF THE PHYSICAL PLANT SEEMED SLIGHTLY SIGNIFICANT DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE WORK, BUT WERE ELIMINATED FROM THE FINAL EQUATION BECAUSE THEIR SIGNIFICANCE DID NOT HOLD UP UNDER STATISTICAL TESTING. APPENDIXES PRESENT PLOTS SHOWING SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CALLS FOR SERVICE, TYPES OF CALLS, AND RAW DATA FOR THE SHOPPING CENTERS USED FOR ANALYSIS. (GLR)