NCJ Number
215363
Journal
Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management Volume: 29 Issue: 2 Dated: 2006 Pages: 306-334
Date Published
2006
Length
29 pages
Annotation
This study compared the effectiveness of all existing geographic profiling software packages to one another as well as to simple spatial distribution strategies in terms of their ability to locate the home base of serial offenders.
Abstract
Results indicated that accuracy among the geographic profiling systems was marginal and that they were no more accurate at locating the home based of serial offenders than simple spatial distribution strategies. Other findings revealed that certain crimes, such as commercial robbery, were difficult to profile using geographic software packages and that the number of crimes committed in a series was not significantly related to the success of a profile. The findings suggest that future revisions of geographic profiling packages need to account for how factors such as city type, crime type, road network, and the spatial aspects of a crime series might impact profiling accuracy. The analysis was conducted on three geographic profiling models that compose the four different geographic profiling packages that are currently available: the Rossmo model, the Canter model, and the Levine model. Three spatial distribution methods of profiling were also analyzed. The analysis involved the mapping of 247 separate serial crime series that occurred in Baltimore County, MD between 1994 and 1997, all of which contained the incident locations as well as the home address of the arrested offender. Future research should focus on how geographic profiling impacts the success of open investigations. Tables, notes, references, appendix