COMMERCIAL SECURITY SURVEYS AND BURGLARY REDUCTION - A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

• NCJ Number: 54140
• Author(s): P J LAVRAKAS; J NORMOYLE; R SZOC
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 16 pages
• Grant Number(s): 78-NI-AX-0111
• Contract Number(s): J-LEAA-022-74
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice
• Corporate Author: Westinghouse Electric Corporation; Northwestern University
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: PRESENTED AT THE SECOND NATIONAL WORKSHOP ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE EVALUATION, WASHINGTON, DC, NOVEMBER 1978

Annotation

EVALUATION RESULTS FROM A CRIME PREVENTION THROUGH ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGN (CPTED) PROGRAM IN PORTLAND, OREG., ARE PRESENTED, AND A MULTISTEP REGRESSION APPROACH TO TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF SECURITY IS EXAMINED.

Abstract

A CPTED DEMONSTRATION PROJECT WAS INITIATED IN A COMMERCIAL SECTOR OF PORTLAND. APPLYING CPTED THEORY, A DEMONSTRATION PLAN WAS WRITTEN THAT RECOMMENDED CHANGES IN THE SECTOR'S PHYSICAL AND SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE AIM OF REDUCING BOTH CRIME AND FEAR AND THEREBY INCREASING THE VIABILITY OF BUSINESSES. PART OF THE CPTED EFFORT INVOLVED SECURITY SURVEYS OF 210 COMMERCIAL ESTABLISHMENTS IN THE TARGET AREA. IN CPTED THEORY, SECURITY SURVEYS ARE DESIGNED TO PROMOTE THE CONCEPT OF ACCESS CONTROL. THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE OF ACCESS CONTROL IS TO KEEP POTENTIAL OFFENDERS OUT OF AREAS WHERE THEY MAY COMMIT CRIMES, BY CREATING PHYSICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIERS. TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT SECURITY SURVEYS AND RELATED IMPROVEMENTS WOULD REDUCE COMMERCIAL BURGLARIES, CRIME REPORTS WERE OBTAINED FROM THE PORTLAND POLICE DEPARTMENT'S FILES FOR A 3-YEAR PERIOD (OCTOBER 1974 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1977). IN ADDITION TO COMMERCIAL BURGLARY DATA, CRIME REPORTS FOR COMMERCIAL ROBBERY AND FOR RESIDENTIAL BURGLARY WERE TABULATED FOR THE SAME 3-YEAR PERIOD. EACH OF THESE THREE DATA SETS WERE ANALYZED AS A TIME-SERIES FOLLOWING A MULTISTEP REGRESSION APPROACH. FIVE STEPS WERE FOLLOWED: (1) PRODUCE RESIDUALS OF ORIGINAL DATA USING ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION; (2) GENERATE AND INSPECT AUTO CORRELATIONS OF RESIDUALS FROM THE FIRST STEP; (3) TEST ORIGINAL DATA USING BEST FITTING TIME-SERIES PARAMETERS; (4) PRODUCE RESIDUALS FROM EQUATIONS TESTED IN THE THIRD STEP; AND (5) GENERATE AND INSPECT AUTO CORRELATIONS OF RESIDUALS FROM THE FOURTH STEP. COINCIDING WITH AND FOLLOWING COMMERCIAL SECURITY SURVEYS, THERE WAS A DECREASE IN THE INCIDENCE OF COMMERCIAL BURGLARIES. THE RATE AT WHICH BURGLARIES OCCURRED SHOWED A SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING TREND, I.E., AS TIME WENT ON AFTER THE SURVEYS, COMMERCIAL BURGLARIES CONTINUED TO OCCUR LESS FREQUENTLY. THERE WAS NO DECREASE IN COMMERCIAL ROBBERIES; THERE WAS A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN RESIDENTIAL BURGLARIES. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT THE SECURITY SURVEYS CREATED PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIERS TO POTENTIAL BURGLARS BY CAUSING THEM TO PERCEIVE AN INCREASE IN THEIR RISK OF BEING APPREHENDED. SUPPORTING DATA AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (DEP)