BLIND SPOTS AND BIASES IN PREDICTION RESEARCH (FROM PAROLE - LEGAL ISSUES/DECISION-MAKING/RESEARCH, 1975 BY WILLIAM E AMOS AND CHARLES L NEWMAN - SEE NCJ-29768)

• NCJ Number: 29771
• Author(s): G R NEWMAN
• Date Published: 1975
• Length: 16 pages
• Corporate Author: Federal Legal Publications, Inc
• Publication Format: Document
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS PAPER BEGINS WITH A SURVEY AND CRITIQUE OF PREDICTION RESEARCH, PROPOSES A NEW PARADIGM FOR PREDICTION IN CRIMINOLOGY, AND CONCLUDES WITH DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS FOR REORIENTATION OF PREDICTION RESEARCH.

Abstract

FIRST DISCUSSED IS HOW CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS AND TRADITIONS - ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE POSITIVISTIC SCHOOL IN SOCIOLOGY - HAVE INFLUENCED THE DIRECTION OF PREDICTION RESEARCH IN CRIMINOLOGY. THE BASIC THESIS OF THIS CRITICISM IS THAT THE FAILURE OF RESEARCHERS PROPERLY TO CONCEPTUALIZE AND COMPREHEND THE NORMATIVE AND VALUE ASPECTS OF THEIR WORK HAS LED THEM TO IGNORE AREAS WHICH COULD BE CONSIDERABLY PRODUCTIVE FOR PREDICTION RESEARCH. THE AUTHOR STATES THAT A FRUITFUL APPLICATION OF PREDICTION MAY BE TO CONSTRUCT THE PROBABLE CAREERS FOR EACH OFFENDER AS HE ENTERS THE CRIMINATING PROCESS. A PARADIGM FOR THE STUDY OF THE OFFENDING CAREER IS PRESENTED. THIS PARADIGM DOES NOT SO MUCH INVOLVE THE GROSS PREDICTION OF WHO WILL OR WILL NOT BE DELINQUENT, BUT RATHER PREDICTS WHO WILL ENTER INTO EACH OF THE STAGES OF THE CRIMINAL DEFINING PROCESS. THE SEVERAL STAGES IN THIS MODEL - PREARREST, POLICE CONTACT, POLICE DISPOSITION, THE COURT, SENTENCING AND PAROLE OR PROBATION - ARE THEN DISCUSSED IN RELATION TO PREDICTION. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)