NCJ Number
53303
Journal
Social Forces Volume: 57 Issue: 2 Dated: SPECIAL ISSUE (DECEMBER 1978) Pages: 671-682
Date Published
1978
Length
12 pages
Annotation
THE EFFECT OF SANCTION CERTAINTY ON CRIME RATES AS DETERMINED IN A PREVIOUS STUDY IS EXAMINED TO SEE IF IT APPLIES GENERALLY OR IS PECULIAR TO CERTAIN CONDITIONS OR DATA.
Abstract
TITTLE AND ROWE'S STUDY OF CRIME RATES IN FLORIDA'S CITIES AND COUNTIES (SEE NCJ-14489) REPORTED THAT A THRESHOLD OF SANCTION CERTAINTY EXISTS, ABOVE WHICH OFFICIAL SANCTIONS DETER CRIME, AND BELOW WHICH THEY DO NOT. THAT THRESHOLD LEVEL WAS FOUND TO BE A 30-PERCENT PROBABILITY. THIS STUDY DETERMINES WHETHER OR NOT THE FINDINGS ARE PECULIAR TO THE DATA EXAMINED. FOUR SETS OF DATA ON CRIMES AND ARRESTS WERE EXAMINED. THE FIRST SET CONSISTED OF 1971 CRIME AND ARREST RATES IN CALIFORNIA CITIES WITH POPULATIONS OVER 25,000. THE SECOND PROVIDED DATA ON CRIME RATES AND ARREST CLEARANCE RATES FOR 1973 IN CALIFORNIA'S COUNTIES. THE THIRD AND FOURTH SETS ON CRIMES AND ARRESTS IN FLORIDA CITIES AND COUNTIES (WITH POPULATIONS OVER 2,500) WERE THE SAME AS THOSE USED BY TITTLE AND ROWE. FINDINGS REVEALED THE FOLLOWING: (1) THE 'TIPPING' EFFECT IS PRESENT IN SMALLER FLORIDA CITIES BUT NOT LARGER ONES; AND (2) THE EVIDENCE OF A DETERRENT EFFECT OF ARREST CERTAINTY IS STRONGER IN SMALLER CITIES AND COUNTIES THAN IN LARGER ONES. THREE ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF THE DATA FINDINGS ARE SUGGESTED: THE APPARENT TIPPING EFFECT OF SANCTION CERTAINTY MAY BE SPURIOUS; LARGER CITIES WOULD MANIFEST A TIPPING EFFECT OF SANCTION CERTAINTY IF ENOUGH OF THEM HAD ARREST RATES THAT WERE ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL; AND LEGAL SANCTIONS EXERT AN INCREASED DETERRENT EFFECT ON CRIME IN THE SMALLER CITIES BECAUSE IN THEM SOCIAL COHESION, FACE-TO-FACE CONTACTS AMONG MOST CITIZENS, AND ACCOMPANYING INFORMATION LINKS ARE GREATER. REFERENCES AND DATA FROM THE STUDY ARE INCLUDED, AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH ARE INDICATED. (RCB)