NCJ Number
145936
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 21 Issue: 5 Dated: (1993) Pages: 467- 479
Date Published
1993
Length
13 pages
Annotation
This article describes a relatively new and largely unused analytical tool: computer simulation of dynamic social trends. To illustrate this technique, the author examined several variables assumed to contribute to homicide rates.
Abstract
Prior research yielded structural explanations for homicide. Specifically, "anomie" and a "subculture of violence" have repeatedly correlated with homicide rates; however, neither adequately explains the inordinately high number of homicides in the United States. This article considers an alternative explanation that focuses on the interactive and reciprocal nature of these two constructs. Through simulation technology, a computer model was built to test the ability of these constructs and the associated variables to predict homicide rates. Recent computer programs can simulate social systems and associated social patterns or trends. STELLA is one such program. It couples a systems approach with computer modeling to forecast qualitative and quantitative dynamics. Findings from the computer simulation show that a simultaneous increase in several variables, such as population density and the availability of handguns, produces a sharp rise in the number of homicides. After several years, societal responses such as enhanced social programs and improved rehabilitative efforts resulted in the stabilization of homicide rates at a level only slightly higher than that recorded before the changes. This may show that "social regression" occurs as a reaction to the increases in violence and that it might have an eventual stabilizing effect. 7 figures, 3 notes, and 40 references