NCJ Number
94616
Date Published
1982
Length
44 pages
Annotation
Three sets of projection models covering 5 years of Alaska's future sentenced felon populations are presented.
Abstract
The first five empirically developed models based on the universe of the 1980 felony dispositions in Alaska, adjusting for various levels of conviction growth rate. Adjustment was also made for the variance between the sentences imposed by the courts and those likely to be served by the offenders. Analysis reveals that replication of felony convictions and sentences rendered during the first year of Alaska's new criminal code (1980) does not result in continued population increases. The second set of projection models includes another five models that estimate the impact of a legislative proposal, HB 293, to extend presumptive sentencing to all felony offenders. The models predict an annual average prison population growth of from 771 to 1386; the most likely models predict a growth of 988 and 1107. Finally, estimates of the additional impact of Alaska's new drug laws on each of the above models is described. For purposes of this model, offenders' sentences were assigned by taking the mean of aggregate groups based upon the class of offense, prior criminal history, and type and amount of substance. The estimated impact of the new law is determined to be greater under the HB 293 models than under the 1980 models.